国际战略研究中心-北极地区的战略稳定与竞争（英文）-2021.1-11页_3mb

Strategic Stability and Competition in the Arctic

Core Content

The Arctic is becoming increasingly significant in terms of geostrategic, economic, and political interests due to climate change, which is opening new routes and resources. The U.S. has growing concerns about the militarization and competitive dynamics in the region, particularly with Russia and China. This brief outlines the challenges and policy options for the U.S. to maintain strategic stability and interests in the Arctic.

Key Trends and Impacts

• Climate Change:

  • Diminishing sea ice is opening new navigation routes, such as the Northern Sea Route (NSR), which can shorten shipping times between Europe and Asia by up to 40%.
  • Thawing permafrost and coastal erosion are threatening existing infrastructure, including missile warning radar stations in Alaska and Greenland.
  • Satellite coverage is limited in the Arctic due to orbital constraints, and auroral disturbances can interfere with positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) systems.

• Economic and Resource Opportunities:

  • The Arctic is estimated to contain 13% of the world's undiscovered oil and 30% of its natural gas.
  • China and Russia are forming partnerships to develop the NSR and extract resources, potentially increasing their economic and strategic influence.
  • China is investing in Arctic infrastructure and has a growing economic interest in the region, including access to rare-earth elements (REEs) essential for U.S. weapon systems.

• Russian Military and Nuclear Posture:

  • Russia has significantly increased its military presence and modernized its Arctic infrastructure, including the Kola Peninsula, which hosts its Northern Fleet and a large portion of its sea-based nuclear deterrent.
  • Russia has reactivated over 50 Soviet-era military bases and is modernizing its SSBN fleet, with plans to deploy at least 10 Borei-class submarines by 2027.
  • Russia is developing anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities in the Arctic, including coastal missile defenses, aircraft, and surface vessels.

• Chinese Involvement:

  • China is expanding its economic footprint in the Arctic, particularly through investments in energy and infrastructure.
  • It is viewed as a "near-Arctic" state and is constructing the Polar Silk Road, which could lead to a permanent military presence.
  • China's involvement in REE extraction in Greenland raises concerns about its leverage over Arctic nations.

Strategic Implications

• U.S. Strategic Interests:

  • The U.S. does not have a permanent nuclear presence in the Arctic, unlike Russia.
  • Its Arctic economic footprint is much smaller compared to Russia's, and it lacks the geographic and economic leverage to match Russia's presence directly.
  • The U.S. needs to improve its domain awareness, communications, and PNT capabilities in the Arctic to maintain operational readiness.

• Nuclear Safety Concerns:

  • There are reports of nuclear weapons testing and accidents in the region, such as the 2019 Skyfall incident.
  • Nuclear safety is a critical issue, and the U.S. should work with Arctic states to prepare for nuclear emergencies.

Policy Options

There are four strategic approaches the U.S. could take in the Arctic:

1. Direct Rebalance Approach:

   • Focuses on unilateral military enhancement and countering Russian dominance.
   • Risks increasing Russian threat perception and undermining strategic stability.

2. Coalition-Based Offsetting Approach:

   • Emphasizes multilateral cooperation with Arctic and near-Arctic allies.
   • Aims to mitigate Russian actions through shared interests and collective efforts.

3. Domain-Based Offsetting Approach:

   • Prioritizes improving operational capabilities through economic and technological investments.
   • Seeks to enhance U.S. strategic flexibility and readiness in the region.

4. Stability Approach:

   • Promotes transparency and cooperation with Russia and China on shared interests.
   • Encourages collaboration on environmental and safety issues to reduce tensions.

Recommendations

• Preserve Access:

  • The U.S. should invest in Arctic infrastructure, including icebreakers and communication systems.
  • Develop a coalition-based approach to address shared challenges like environmental protection and emergency response.

• Improve ISR Architecture:

  • Enhance communications and PNT capabilities by integrating commercial and national satellite systems.
  • Maintain and upgrade ground-based radar installations and invest in space-based assets such as HEO satellites and high-altitude balloons.

• Emphasize Nuclear Safety:

  • Conduct joint nuclear accident exercises with Arctic states to improve preparedness.
  • Leverage past experiences, such as Operation Tomodachi, to develop effective response strategies.

Conclusion

The Arctic is undergoing rapid transformation due to climate change, leading to increased competition and potential militarization. The U.S. must balance its strategic interests with the realities of its limited presence and economic influence. A hybrid approach combining stability and coalition-based offsetting is recommended to ensure U.S. interests are protected while promoting cooperation and reducing risks.