2024-05-26-GSMA-2024年欧亚大陆移动经济报告_44页_5mb

报告摘要

The Mobile Economy: Eurasia 2024 Summary

1. Mobile Industry Overview

Mobile tech contributed $200 billion to the Eurasian economy in 2023 (7.9% of GDP), supporting ~770,000 jobs.
By 2030, this contribution is projected to grow to $220 billion, nearly doubling.
5G adoption in Eurasia is still nascent, with limited coverage; projections show growth to ~40% market share by 2030.
Fintech and digital payments are thriving, driven by open banking and CBDCs (e.g., Uzbekistan's Digital Tenge).

2. Key Trends

5G Development: Early stages in Eurasia; focus on urban areas. 5G FWA emerging as a connectivity solution.
AI Integration: Operators in Kazakhstan and Russia implementing genAI for customer service, fraud detection, and network optimization.
Network APIs: GSMA's Open Gateway initiative enables standardized APIs for monetization (e.g., geolocation services).
Satellite Connectivity: Partnerships (e.g., KazPost + satellite) aim to extend coverage in remote areas; reduced costs and performance improvements.
Fintech: Mobile payments expanding beyond core services (e.g., Kcell's public transport integration).
IoT Growth: Expected to nearly double (to ~104 million connections) by 2030, driven by applications in agriculture, utilities, and smart cities.

3. Economic Impact

Mobile industry represents ~800,000 jobs (530k direct, 240k indirect) and $14 billion in fiscal contributions in 2023.
5G could add ~$23 billion by 2030, boosting industries like manufacturing (22%) and services (28%).
Digital services boosted GDP during COVID-19 lockdowns; satellite tech helps disaster response (e.g., Beeline's Orman-AI fire detection).

4. Policy Recommendations

Spectrum Policy: Release low/700MHz bands to expand rural coverage; harmonize mid-bands (e.g., 6GHz).
Regulatory Framework: Avoid restrictive licenses; incentivize infrastructure investment (e.g., Uzbekistan's 90% spectrum discounts).
EMF Rules: Align with ICNIRP guidelines; fund passive network sharing to reduce costs.
Tax Reforms: Reduce corporate taxes and fees (Uzbekistan at 34% is high) to foster investment.
Public-Private Partnerships: Collaborate for IoT, satellite, and green energy projects (solar-powered base stations).

5. Sustainability

Operators adopting renewables: Beeline uses solar power; Azercell transitioning to hybrid stations.
Climate action partnerships support disaster resilience and SDG-aligned projects (e.g., digital education in rural Kazakhstan).

6. Challenges

5G Adoption: Limited smartphone affordability and SA architecture delays.
Affordability: High costs of devices and data in post-Soviet nations; lack of inclusive social tariffs.
Coverage Gaps: Rural connectivity hindered by infrastructure costs, tax burdens, and complex spectrum coordination.

Conclusion
Eurasia's mobile ecosystem is at a pivotal stage where 5G, AI, and satellite tech are bridging the digital divide, but policy and economic barriers remain. Cooperative efforts—via spectrum reforms, industrial partnerships, and investments—will drive continued growth, emissions reduction, and inclusion.

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