GSMA-2019年北美移动经济报告（英文）-2019.11-44页_2mb

The Mobile Economy Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the mobile economy in North America, with a focus on 2019 and projections up to 2025. It highlights the growth of the mobile market, the impact of 5G technology, the role of IoT, and the contribution of the mobile ecosystem to economic and social development.

Main Points

1. The Mobile Market in Numbers

• Subscriber Growth: North America is expected to have 345 million subscribers by 2025, with 25 million new subscribers added during this period.
• Market Share: North America accounts for over 25% of global mobile revenue in 2019, with the US being the largest market, contributing more than 50% greater revenue than China.
• Mobile Broadband: North America has the highest levels of mobile broadband and smartphone adoption globally.
• 4G Dominance: 4G will remain the dominant technology in North America until 2025, when 5G connections are expected to surpass 4G.

2. Mobile's Contribution to Economic Growth

• Economic Impact: In 2018, mobile technologies and services contributed $937 billion to the North American economy, representing 4.2% of GDP.
• Employment: The mobile ecosystem directly employs 820,000 people and supports an additional 1.5 million indirect jobs.
• Public Funding: Mobile operators contributed $123 billion in taxes to public funding in 2018.
• Future Projections: By 2023, mobile's contribution to the economy is expected to reach $1.2 trillion, or 4.8% of GDP.

3. Key Trends Shaping the Mobile Ecosystem

• 5G Adoption: North America is expected to be a leader in 5G adoption, with 46% of connections on 5G networks by 2025.
• 5G Investment: 5G will account for 87% of operator capex in North America by 2025, with $353 billion invested in the US alone between 2018 and 2025.
• 5G Opportunities: The main opportunities for revenue growth include 5G-based fixed wireless access (FWA) and enterprise services. FWA is expected to provide an alternative to fixed broadband, with Verizon and T-Mobile leading in deployment.
• IoT Growth: IoT connections are expected to grow from 2.3 billion in 2018 to 5.9 billion in 2025, with applications spanning consumer and enterprise sectors.
• Edge Computing: Edge computing will be essential for supporting 5G services, especially those requiring low latency and high performance.
• Mobile Identity: Enhancing mobile identity solutions will be crucial for boosting online security.

4. Policy and Regulation

• 5G FAST Plan: The FCC's 5G FAST Plan aims to accelerate 5G deployment by making more spectrum available and reviewing infrastructure policies.
• Spectrum Allocation: Operators need timely and sufficient availability of mid-range and high-band spectrum to fully realise 5G potential.
• Robocalling: Operator-led initiatives are helping to halt the surge in robocalling, improving consumer experience.

5. Social and Environmental Impact

• Climate Change: Mobile technology helps reduce GHG emissions in other sectors through applications like connected health, remote working, smart logistics, and traffic management.
• Emissions Reduction Goals: The mobile industry has committed to net-zero emissions by 2050, with operators like AT&T, Verizon, and Bell setting ambitious targets for emissions reduction and renewable energy use.

Key Information

• 5G Launches: The four largest US mobile operators (AT&T, Sprint, T-Mobile, Verizon) launched 5G services in 2019, with Verizon leading in 5G FWA.
• Unlimited Data Plans: The launch of unlimited data plans by Rogers in Canada led to a 50% increase in data usage among its customers.
• Mergers and Acquisitions: The merger of T-Mobile and Sprint is expected to create a major player in the 5G market, with 2.5 GHz spectrum playing a key role in improving coverage and capacity.
• Consumer Expectations: US consumers have high expectations for 5G, with over half anticipating improved coverage, while 5G FWA is seen as a valuable alternative to fixed broadband.

Summary

The North American mobile market is on the cusp of a significant transformation driven by 5G technology and the broader mobile ecosystem. With 345 million subscribers projected by 2025, the region is expected to lead in 5G adoption, with 46% of connections expected to be on 5G networks by that year. The US is the largest mobile market globally, contributing over $280 billion in revenue in 2019. Mobile technologies are playing a crucial role in economic growth, generating $937 billion in value in 2018 and projected to reach $1.2 trillion by 2023. The mobile industry's contribution to GDP is expected to increase from 4.2% in 2018 to 4.8% in 2023.

In addition to economic benefits, the mobile industry is contributing to social challenges by reducing GHG emissions through various applications. The GSMA and its members are working towards net-zero emissions by 2050, with 5G expected to contribute $657 billion to the North American economy over the next 15 years.

Policy support is vital for the success of 5G, with the FCC's 5G FAST Plan focusing on spectrum availability and infrastructure development. Operator-led initiatives are also helping to combat robocalling and improve consumer protection.

Overall, the mobile ecosystem is poised to drive innovation, economic growth, and environmental sustainability in North America, with 5G, IoT, and edge computing playing central roles in shaping the future of the industry.