20160111-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_18页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary
Core Content
This document provides a regional economic and market update for the week of 11 January 2016, covering China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand. It also includes stock analysis, corporate events, and financial metrics for selected companies, particularly Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK).
Main Points
China
-
Inflation:
- CPI rose to 1.6% yoy in December 2015, driven by increased pork and vegetable prices due to cold weather.
- Core CPI remained stable, while food prices increased by 2.7% yoy.
- PPI deflation persisted at -5.9% yoy, the fifth consecutive month, 0.1ppt worse than expected.
- Producer goods saw a decline of -7.6% yoy, with coal, oil, and gas prices falling -19.7% yoy.
- Consumer goods declined by -0.4% yoy, indicating deflationary pressure spreading to downstream sectors.
-
Monetary Policy:
- The PBOC is expected to continue monetary easing to address deflationary pressures.
- A 50bp RRR cut is anticipated in the weeks leading up to the Chinese New Year.
-
Policy Impact:
- Healthcare reform is expected to increase tender price pressure on Sino Biopharmaceutical's major products.
- The government is focusing on supply-side reforms, including mergers and acquisitions to eliminate overcapacity in industries like steel.
-
Company Update: Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK):
- Downgraded to SELL due to considerable investment risks in China Cinda.
- Acquired a 5.26% stake in China Cinda for Rmb4.92b (HK$5.30).
- Target price lowered to HK$5.50, with a potential upside of +3.8%.
- The investment may increase financing costs due to foreign exchange losses and interest expenses.
-
Risks:
- Lower drug tender prices and policy uncertainties.
- Intensifying competition and market expansion risks.
- M&A risks and unclear investment plans.
Key Markets and Indices
| Index | Previous Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 16346.5 | -1.0 | -6.2 | -5.3 | -6.2 |
| S&P 500 | 1922.0 | -1.1 | -6.0 | -4.5 | -6.0 |
| FTSE 100 | 5912.4 | -0.7 | -5.3 | -0.7 | -5.3 |
| AS30 | 5049.4 | -0.4 | -5.5 | -0.6 | -5.5 |
| CSI 300 | 3361.6 | +2.0 | -9.9 | -6.8 | -9.9 |
| FSSTI | 2751.2 | +0.8 | -4.6 | -2.9 | -4.6 |
| HSCEI | 8845.9 | +1.1 | -8.4 | -6.8 | -8.4 |
| HSI | 20453.7 | +0.6 | -6.7 | -4.7 | -6.7 |
| JCI | 4546.3 | +0.3 | -1.0 | +3.5 | -1.0 |
| KLCI | 1657.6 | +0.1 | -2.1 | +1.1 | -2.1 |
| KOSPI | 1917.6 | +0.7 | -2.2 | -1.6 | -2.2 |
| Nikkei 225 | 17698.0 | -0.4 | -7.0 | -8.0 | -7.0 |
| SET | 1244.2 | +1.6 | -3.4 | -2.9 | -3.4 |
| TWSE | 7894.0 | +0.5 | -5.3 | -2.7 | -5.3 |
| BDI | 429 | -3.6 | -10.3 | -17.8 | -10.3 |
| CPO (RM/mt) | 2220 | -0.6 | +0.9 | +2.8 | +0.9 |
| Brent Crude | 34 | -0.6 | -10.0 | -16.7 | -10.0 |
Key Assumptions
| Country | 2014 GDP (yoy) | 2015F GDP (yoy) | 2016F GDP (yoy) |
|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Euro Zone | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Japan | -0.1 | 0.5 | 1.5 |
| Singapore | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.9 |
| Malaysia | 6.0 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Thailand | 0.9 | 2.7 | 4.0 |
| Indonesia | 5.0 | 4.8 | 5.4 |
| Hong Kong | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| China | 7.3 | 6.5 | 6.7 |
| Commodity | 2014 Avg (US$/bbl) | 2015 Avg (US$/bbl) | 2016 Avg (US$/bbl) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | 99.45 | 54 | 62 |
| CPO | 722 | 550 | 660 |
Corporate Events
| Event | Venue | Dates |
|---|---|---|
| WCT Holdings Luncheon | Kuala Lumpur | 11 Jan |
| Zhong Ao Home Luncheon and Teleconference | Hong Kong | 15 Jan |
| Keppel REIT Luncheon | Singapore | 19 Jan |
| UOB Luncheon | Singapore | 20 Jan |
| Singapore Airlines Luncheon | Singapore | 5 Feb |
| Indonesian Strategy Analyst Presentation | Singapore, Kuala Lumpur | 11 Mar, 12 Mar, 13 Mar |
Stock Analysis: Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK)
- Downgrade: From BUY to SELL.
- Target Price: Lowered to HK$5.50.
- Upside: +3.8%.
- Previous Target Price: HK$8.50.
Key Financials
| Metric | 2014 (HK$m) | 2015F (HK$m) | 2016F (HK$m) | 2017F (HK$m) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net turnover | 12,378.4 | 15,566.0 | 18,828.9 | 22,158.8 |
| Net profit (rep./act.) | 1,513.2 | 1,963.9 | 2,387.6 | 2,798.4 |
| Net profit (adj.) | 1,477.5 | 1,963.9 | 2,387.6 | 2,798.4 |
| Net profit CAGR | - | - | 19% | - |
Valuation Metrics
| Metric | 2014 | 2015F | 2016F | 2017F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/B (x) | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.1 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 16.8 | 12.4 | 11.5 | 10.0 |
| Net margin (%) | 12.2 | 12.6 | 12.7 | 12.6 |
| ROE (%) | 25.0 | 26.5 | 28.3 | 29.0 |
Company Description
- Sino Biopharmaceutical is a leading pharmaceutical provider in China.
- Offers a broad range of drugs in therapeutic areas such as cardiovascular, cerebral, hepatitis, oncology, analgesic, respiratory, and diabetic medicines.
Risks
- Lower drug tender prices and policy risks.
- Intensifying competition.
- Risks in market expansion and new product launches.
- Risks in M&As and unclear investment plans.
Conclusion
The document highlights economic conditions in key Asian markets, particularly China, with a focus on inflation trends, PPI deflation, and monetary policy implications. It also provides a detailed stock analysis of Sino Biopharmaceutical, downgrading it due to investment risks and tender price pressures. Additionally, it outlines corporate events and key financial metrics for various countries, offering insights into market dynamics and investment opportunities.
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