20151006-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_18页_927kb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - 06 October 2015

Core Content

This document provides a summary of market and sector updates for several Asian countries, including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, with a focus on investment banking, budget realisation, infrastructure projects, and stock performance.

China

Securities Sector

IPO Resumption: The resumption of IPOs in China is expected to be positive for sentiment, even though it may not occur in the near term.
Historical Impact: The average 10-day return of IPO stocks in the quiet market of 2011 and 2012 was around 17%, suggesting that the resumption may still attract investors.
Key Takeaway: Despite the initial negative market reaction due to liquidity concerns, the sentiment is expected to improve over time.
Top Pick: CGS (6881 HK) is the top pick, with a target price of HK$10.80 and a potential upside of 46.3%.

Indonesia

Strategy - Ramp-up in Budget and Infrastructure Realisation

Budget Realisation: As of August 15, 53% of the total budget and 41% of the infrastructure budget have been spent.
Infrastructure Projects: The government is focusing on infrastructure development, including new roads, water treatment plants, and housing projects.
Toll Road Development: The Trans Java toll road is progressing well, and the toll tariff is expected to be adjusted in October 2015, benefiting JSMR.
Economic Impact: Infrastructure spending is expected to trickle down to the economy and support growth by 2016.
Top Picks: Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ), Indofood CBP (ICBP IJ), Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ), and Nippon Indosari (ROTI IJ) are highlighted as top buys.

Malaysia

Strategy - Small-Cap Spotlight - George Kent

LRT3 Project: George Kent has been appointed as a co-Project Delivery Partner (PDP) for the RM9b LRT3 project, which is expected to generate RM270m in fees over five years.
Financial Impact: The LRT3 project is anticipated to significantly boost George Kent's earnings, surpassing its historical earnings base.
Stock Performance: George Kent is trading at a trailing PE of 9.5x and a historical dividend yield of 3-5%. The company has a strong construction orderbook, covering 5.8x its FY15 construction revenue.
Recommendation: Maintain an OVERWEIGHT rating for George Kent due to its potential for growth and the positive impact of the LRT3 project.

Singapore

REITs Sector

Market Focus: The REITs sector is being highlighted for its potential to stretch balance sheets to the fullest, indicating a focus on leverage and growth.
Sector Strategy: The document suggests that the REITs sector may be a good investment opportunity due to its ability to manage and leverage financial resources effectively.

Key Indices (as of 06 October 2015)

Index	Prev Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	16776.4	1.8	4.8	4.2	(5.9)
S&P 500	1987.1	1.8	5.6	3.4	(3.5)
FTSE 100	6298.9	2.8	5.7	4.2	(4.1)
AS30	5184.1	1.9	0.8	2.4	(3.8)
CSI 300	3202.9	0.8	(1.8)	(4.7)	(9.4)
FSSTI	2851.3	2.1	2.1	(0.4)	(15.3)
HSCEI	9883.7	2.0	4.4	7.8	(17.5)
HSI	21854.5	1.6	3.6	4.9	(7.4)
JCI	4343.7	3.2	5.4	(1.6)	(16.9)
KLCI	1647.6	1.2	2.4	3.7	(6.5)
KOSPI	1978.3	0.4	1.6	4.9	3.3
Nikkei 225	18005.5	1.6	2.0	1.2	3.2
SET	1363.2	1.2	0.8	(0.6)	(9.0)
TWSE	8352.4	0.6	2.8	4.4	(10.3)
BDI	881	(0.9)	(6.6)	0.7	12.7
CPO (RM/mt)	2303	0.5	6.1	21.5	0.2
Brent Crude (US$/bbl)	49	2.3	4.0	(0.7)	(14.1)

Key Assumptions

Country	GDP (% yoy) 2014	GDP (% yoy) 2015F	GDP (% yoy) 2016F
US	2.4	2.5	2.5
Euro Zone	0.9	1.5	1.7
Japan	-0.1	0.5	1.5
Singapore	2.9	2.5	2.9
Malaysia	6.0	4.8	4.8
Thailand	0.9	2.7	4.0
Indonesia	5.0	4.8	5.4
Hong Kong	2.5	1.8	1.5
China	7.3	6.5	6.7

Corporate Events

Malaysia O&G Assembly: 7 October 2015 in Kuala Lumpur.
Indonesia Market Strategy & Consumer Sector Analyst Presentation: 8–9 October 2015 in Kuala Lumpur; 14 October 2015 in Singapore; 15–16 October 2015 in Bangkok.
Singapore Telecommunications Sector Analyst Presentation: 7–9 October 2015 in Singapore.
Asian Gems Conference: 12–13 October 2015 in Singapore.
China Property Sector Analyst Presentation: 14 October 2015 in Singapore.
AKR Corporindo Roadshow: 19–20 October 2015 in Taipei.
Indo Oil and Gas Sector Analyst Presentation: 21–22 October 2015 in Taipei.
Singapore Telecommunications Sector Analyst Presentation: 22–23 October 2015 in Kuala Lumpur.

Top Picks

Company	Ticker	Target Price (HK$)	Potential Upside (%)
Beijing Capital	694 HK	11.40	46.3
ICBC	1398 HK	7.60	64.9
Bank BJB	BJBRLJ	980.00	56.8
DiGi.Com	DIGI MK	6.30	9.9
Maybank	MAY MK	10.00	16.3
CapitaLand	CAPL SP	4.08	41.7
DBS	DBS SP	23.75	43.9
Kasikornbank	KBANK TB	232.00	35.7
PTT	PTT TB	410.00	62.1

Sector Rating - Indonesia

Sector	UOBKH Rating
Agriculture	MARKET WEIGHT
Automobile	UNDERWEIGHT
Cement	OVERWEIGHT
Construction	OVERWEIGHT
Consumer	OVERWEIGHT
Finance & Banking	MARKET WEIGHT
Mining	UNDERWEIGHT
Oil & Gas	MARKET WEIGHT
Poultry	NEUTRAL
Property	NEUTRAL
Retail	OVERWEIGHT

Malaysia - George Kent

LRT3 Project: Expected to begin construction in 2H16, with a 5-year fee income of RM270m.
Dividend Yield: Historical range of 3–5%.
Valuation: Trading at a trailing PE of 9.5x and a P/B of 1.3x.
Orderbook: RM1.5b in outstanding construction orders, covering 5.8x its FY15 construction revenue.
Key Financials: Strong EBITDA and operating profit, with a net profit of RM28.1m in FY15.