【世界经济论坛】扩大新兴经济体煤炭淘汰融资规模-2025.2

Scaling Financing for Coal Phase-out in Emerging Economies
February 2025

Executive Summary
This paper addresses the urgent need to accelerate coal-to-clean transitions in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) through innovative financing mechanisms. Coal accounts for 36% of global power generation, with higher shares in EMDEs, such as 50% in Southeast Asia. Continued reliance on coal threatens climate goals, as existing coal assets could consume half the remaining carbon budget by 2050. Early retirement of coal plants is critical to achieving net-zero emissions, requiring scalable financial solutions.

Key findings highlight the effectiveness of financial re-gearing and loan tenor extension, which can achieve significant emissions reductions with limited concessional financing. By increasing debt-to-equity ratios and extending repayment periods, asset owners can realize early equity payouts (up to 40% of remaining value) tied to renewables reinvestment or fossil fuel exclusion, reducing stranded asset risks. These approaches are replicable in EMDEs, offering a cost-effective alternative to traditional concessional financing.

Strategic use of transition credits—a new class of carbon credits—can further incentivize early closures by compensating asset owners for foregone revenue. However, scaling these tools requires addressing challenges such as limited availability and ensuring alignment with market mechanisms. The analysis of 10 Philippine coal plants demonstrates that re-gearing with no concessional financing reduces coal lifespans by 8–12 years, avoiding 118 million tonnes of CO₂, while concessional financing scenarios demand higher capital (e.g., $1.3 billion for 10 plants).

Government policies play a pivotal role, including setting long-term goals, imposing costs on coal operations, and accelerating clean energy adoption. Regulatory frameworks that restrict coal’s economic viability, such as carbon pricing and moratoriums on new coal projects, are essential. However, the lack of standardized metrics and investor confidence remains a barrier.

Core Challenges
EMDEs face significant hurdles, including securing investor buy-in, managing energy transition risks, and ensuring just transitions for workers. Coal plants, especially older and smaller ones, are more attractive for concessional financing due to lower capital needs, while newer, larger assets benefit from market-based CRMs. The analysis underscores the need for a diversified approach, combining financial restructuring with complementary tools like transition credits and repowering.

Recommendations

1. Financial Engineering Tools: Prioritize re-gearing and loan tenor extension to reduce reliance on concessional capital, enabling early payouts and enhancing asset owners’ incentives.
2. Policy Integration: Governments must implement science-based transition pathways, such as capping coal lifespans and phasing out subsidies, to devalue coal.
3. Investor Confidence: Develop transparent metrics and verification mechanisms to align with global standards (e.g., GFANZ, ASEAN Taxonomy Board), ensuring credibility of emissions abatement claims.
4. Complementary Measures: Scale transition credits and concessional finance for demonstration projects, while exploring repowering opportunities to repurpose existing infrastructure.

The paper emphasizes the importance of collaboration between policymakers, financial institutions, and stakeholders to unlock scalable financing solutions. Further testing and systemic reforms are needed to address market barriers, ensure equitable outcomes, and accelerate the global shift from coal to clean energy.

Key Takeaways

• Financial re-gearing offers comparable emissions reduction to concessional financing but with fewer costs.
• Transition credits and moratoriums on new coal plants are vital for early closures.
• EMDEs must balance economic transition risks with sustainability goals, requiring tailored policies and financial tools.
• Scaling coal phase-out demands a combination of innovation, policy alignment, and stakeholder engagement.