IMF-新兴市场和发展中经济体的债务脆弱性和融资挑战——关键数据概述（英）-2025.2_24页_1mb

Summary of Debt Vulnerabilities and Financing Challenges in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

Core Content

This report, released by the IMF staff on January 31, 2025, provides an overview of debt vulnerabilities and financing challenges in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). It highlights the evolution of debt structures, the current state of financing needs, and the risks associated with debt sustainability.

Main Views

• Debt Levels Have Stabilized but Remain Elevated:
  Public debt in EMDEs has stabilized post-pandemic, though it remains high. Before the pandemic, public debt in EMDEs was on an increasing trend, and the pandemic exacerbated this trend. However, primary fiscal deficits have mostly narrowed, returning to pre-pandemic levels for many countries.

• Debt Vulnerabilities Have Evolved:
  The composition of public external debt has shifted significantly, with a growing reliance on private and non-Paris Club creditors, especially in low-income countries (LICs). This has increased debt service burdens and introduced new risks due to the complexity of new debt instruments such as those involving public-private partnerships (PPPs) and sovereign guarantees.

• Fiscal Space Is Constrained:
  High interest costs and growing external debt service obligations have reduced fiscal space, limiting the ability of EMDEs to fund development and social spending. The median LIC now spends about 16% of revenues (excluding grants) on external debt service, up from 6% a decade ago.

• Financing Challenges Remain Severe:
  Refinancing needs are expected to rise significantly, particularly for LICs, where external principal payments are projected to exceed USD 30 billion annually over 2025-27. For EMs, the annual external principal payments reached USD 185 billion in 2023, with a need for about USD 350 billion in gross external financing flows to maintain exposure.

• Net External Flows Have Declined:
  Net external flows to EMDEs have decreased, limiting the ability to meet investment and social spending needs. This decline is attributed to reduced private and bilateral financing, and the impact of global financial conditions and exchange rate movements.

• Regional Disparities in Financing Needs:
  Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for a significant share of countries with high financing challenges, including high interest-to-revenue and external principal-to-revenue ratios. In contrast, other regions such as Asia and the Pacific have different patterns, with some small island states and countries facing high primary deficits.

• High Borrowing Costs and Low Revenue Capacity:
  Countries with high interest-to-revenue ratios often have limited domestic revenue capacity, with tax-to-GDP ratios well below 15%. This is compounded by high domestic financing costs and a reliance on more expensive domestic debt.

• Domestic Debt Service Pressures:
  Domestic debt service burdens have become a significant source of financing pressure, particularly for some LICs. The domestic debt service to revenue ratio in these countries has reached nearly 100%, especially when including grants, which has strained public finances and led to domestic payment arrears in some cases.

• Rollover Risks Are Rising:
  The need for frequent refinancing has increased, particularly for LICs. The median LIC's external principal payments to revenue ratio has more than doubled since 2010, and this trend is expected to continue, increasing the risk of debt distress.

• Uncertainties and Risks to the Baseline:
  While the risk of a systemic debt crisis appears contained, there are significant uncertainties, including global growth, financial conditions, and exchange rate movements. These could lead to a broad-based debt crisis if not managed properly.

• Need for Proactive Measures:
  Countries need to take both domestic and international actions to expand their financing capacity for development and social spending. This includes improving fiscal sustainability, enhancing revenue mobilization, and ensuring access to affordable financing.

Key Information

• Debt Trends:

  • Public debt levels in EMDEs have stabilized post-pandemic.
  • The share of external public debt held by commercial and non-Paris Club creditors has increased significantly.
  • Domestic debt has grown, especially in LICs, due to reduced access to external financing.

• Interest and Debt Service Burdens:

  • Interest payments on total public debt have increased, especially for LICs, with a rise of over two and a half times compared to a decade ago.
  • External debt service to revenue ratios have increased, with the median LIC at 16% and EMs at over 12%.

• Financing Needs:

  • External principal payments for LICs are projected to exceed USD 30 billion annually over 2025-27.
  • EMs require about USD 350 billion in annual gross external financing to maintain exposure.
  • Net external flows have declined, limiting the ability to meet investment and social spending needs.

• Regional Analysis:

  • Sub-Saharan Africa has the largest share of countries with high financing challenges.
  • Latin America and the Middle East and Central Asia also face significant debt vulnerabilities.
  • Asia and the Pacific includes small island states with large primary deficits.

• Debt Instruments and Risks:

  • New debt instruments like PPPs and sovereign guarantees are riskier and harder to restructure.
  • These instruments do not immediately reflect in debt burden indicators but can lead to sudden increases in debt vulnerabilities.

• IMF and World Bank Role:

  • The report is based on data from the IMF Global Debt Database and World Bank International Debt Statistics.
  • It highlights the importance of debt sustainability assessments and the need for careful monitoring of financial conditions and exchange rate movements.

Conclusion

The report underscores the ongoing challenges EMDEs face in managing debt vulnerabilities and financing needs, particularly in the context of high interest costs, declining net external flows, and evolving creditor compositions. It calls for proactive measures at both the domestic and international levels to ensure sustainable financing for development and social spending.