博鳌亚洲论坛新兴经济体发展2017年度报告英文版_124页_3mb

Boao Forum for Asia 2017 Annual Report Summary

Core Content

The Boao Forum for Asia Development of Emerging Economies Annual Report 2017 provides an in-depth analysis of the economic conditions, growth trends, employment and income dynamics, price and monetary policies, international trade, international direct investment, commodity markets, and debt levels of the E11 (11 major emerging-market economies). The report emphasizes the resilience of emerging economies in the face of global economic challenges and highlights the importance of regional cooperation and policy coordination.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Economic Growth

• Trend: The E11 economies experienced a slow but stable growth trend in 2016, with a growth rate of 4.4%, slightly lower than the previous year.
• Global Contribution: The E11 accounted for 60% of global economic growth in 2016, underscoring their role as a key driver of the world economy.
• Structural Factors: Growth was supported by internal demand expansion and economic restructuring. Private consumption increasingly contributed to growth, while the growth rate gap between the fastest and slowest-growing economies narrowed from 11.4 percentage points in 2015 to 10.2 percentage points in 2016.
• Country Examples: China was the fastest-growing E11 economy at 6.7%, while Brazil experienced negative growth of -3.5%.

2. Employment and Income

• Population Growth: The E11's total population reached 3.68 billion in 2016, with a 0.9% annual increase, much higher than the G7's 0.5%.
• Employment Pressures: The E11 faced significant employment challenges, with unemployment rates rising from 2015 to 2017. Countries like South Africa, Brazil, and Turkey had unemployment rates above 10%, with Brazil's rate increasing by 2.9 percentage points.
• Income Inequality: Income distribution inequality increased, and the Gini coefficient for the E11 became more pronounced than that of developed economies.
• Urbanization: The E11 showed a continuing urbanization trend, but India's urbanization was relatively slow, increasing by only 0.38 percentage points in 2015, compared to China's 1.2 percentage points.
• Education and Workforce: Higher education enrollment remained low, indicating a shortage of high-end workforce in the E11.

3. Prices and Monetary Policies

• Inflation: Inflation rates in the E11 modestly rose in 2016 due to commodity price recovery, currency depreciation, and domestic economic conditions. South Africa saw an inflation rate of 6.3%, up by 1.7 percentage points from 2015, while China's inflation was 2.0%, up by 0.6 percentage points.
• Monetary Policy: Despite weak growth, most E11 economies lowered benchmark interest rates. However, some, like Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey, had to raise interest rates due to inflation and depreciation pressures.
• Currency Depreciation: The local currency against the US dollar continued to depreciate, affecting trade balances and inflation.

4. International Trade

• Trade Volume: Global goods trade volume declined by 12.7% in 2015, and the E11's trade volume continued to slump, with a decline of 13.5% in goods trade in 2015 and 8.2% in the first half of 2016.
• Trade Structure: The E11's trade with developed economies remained significant, accounting for 59.6% of their total trade in the first half of 2016, while internal trade declined to 22.9%.
• Protectionism: Trade protectionism increased, with the G20 implementing 5,560 restrictive measures since 2008, compared to 1,734 liberalization measures, indicating a shift against globalization.

5. International Direct Investment (FDI)

• FDI Trends: FDI inflows and outflows in the E11 continued a downward trend from 2014, with South Africa, Russia, Korea, and Indonesia experiencing significant declines.
• Country Performance: Argentina, Turkey, India, and Mexico saw increases in FDI inflows, while China's FDI inflow grew by 5.5% in 2015.
• Net FDI: The net FDI inflow of the E11 totaled USD119.763 billion in 2015, reversing the previous three-year decline.
• Global FDI: Global FDI inflows slipped into negative growth in 2016, with an estimated decline of 10%-15%, and developed economies saw a decline of 10%-14%, while developing economies saw a 12%-16% decline.

6. Commodity Markets

• Price Recovery: International bulk commodity prices recovered in 2016, with crude oil, natural gas, and coal seeing significant rebounds.
• Commodity Index: The CRB Index rose rapidly in the first half of 2016, peaking at 430 points in early 2017.
• Impact on E11: The price recovery had non-neutral effects on E11 economies. Commodity exporters like Saudi Arabia, Russia, Brazil, Argentina, Indonesia, and South Africa benefited, while importers like China, Korea, India, Turkey, and Mexico faced increased costs and reduced competitiveness.

7. Debt and Financial Markets

• Public Debt: Public debt in the E11 was relatively low compared to the G7, but still increased in 2016.
• Private Debt: Private debt risks were a growing concern, particularly in non-financial sectors.
• Debt Servicing: Some E11 economies faced significant pressure on foreign debt servicing, especially China, India, and South Africa.
• Financial Market Volatility: The stock markets of the E11 remained volatile, while treasury bond markets showed improvement. Property market risks and economic uncertainty also increased.

Conclusion

The 2017 report highlights that while the E11 economies have shown resilience and growth, they still face significant risks and challenges such as slowed productivity, increased inequality, high debt levels, exchange rate fluctuations, trade protectionism, and geopolitical instability. The forum emphasizes the need for cooperation, policy coordination, and institutional reforms to ensure sustainable development and global economic stability.