世界银行-2024全球经济展望（6月版）：增长趋于稳定，但增速疲软（英）-2024-220页_6mb

Global Economic Prospects Summary (June 2024)

Core Content

The June 2024 edition of Global Economic Prospects provides an in-depth analysis of the global economic outlook, regional developments, and key policy challenges. It highlights the current state of global growth, inflation, trade, and fiscal policies, emphasizing the need for structural reforms and international cooperation to achieve sustainable development and prosperity.

Main Points

Global Outlook

• Growth: Global growth is projected to stabilize at 2.6% in 2024, marking the first time in three years it has held steady despite rising geopolitical tensions and high interest rates. It is expected to rise slightly to 2.7% in 2025-2026 due to modest growth in trade and investment.
• Inflation: Global inflation is forecast to moderate to 3.5% in 2024, which is slower than previously anticipated. Central banks in both advanced and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) are likely to remain cautious in easing monetary policy.
• Interest Rates: Average benchmark policy interest rates are expected to remain about double the 2000–19 average over the next few years due to continued inflationary pressures.
• Challenges: Growth remains below historical averages, with global growth expected to be nearly half a percentage point lower than the 2010–19 average. Many vulnerable economies are projected to remain poorer than before the pandemic.

Regional Outlooks

• East Asia and Pacific (EAP): Growth is expected to slow due to China's moderation. The region is projected to grow at around 4.5% in 2024.
• Europe and Central Asia (ECA): Growth is also expected to decelerate, with the region growing at around 3.0% in 2024.
• Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC): Growth is projected to decelerate, but at a slower pace than other regions.
• Middle East and North Africa (MNA): Growth is expected to pick up in 2024, though not as robustly as previously forecast.
• South Asia (SAR): Growth is projected to rise slightly, with India leading the region's performance.
• Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA): Growth is expected to increase, though the pace is still below pre-pandemic levels.

Key Risks

• Geopolitical Tensions: Escalating tensions could lead to volatile commodity prices and further trade disruptions.
• Trade Fragmentation: Trade policy uncertainty has reached a high level, especially in years with major global elections.
• Inflation Persistence: Inflation could delay monetary easing and keep interest rates elevated.
• Natural Disasters: Small states face an increased frequency of climate-related natural disasters, which threaten economic stability.
• Debt Distress: Two-fifths of EMDE small states are at high risk of debt distress or already in it.

Public Investment

• Role in Growth: Public investment can be a powerful lever for economic growth, particularly in EMDEs. It can also catalyze private investment and boost productivity.
• Current Trends: Public investment in EMDEs has slowed significantly over the past decade.
• Impact: A 1% increase in public investment relative to GDP can boost output by up to 1.6% over the medium term.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Improve public investment efficiency.
  • Expand fiscal space through revenue and expenditure measures.
  • Strengthen governance and fiscal administration.
  • Leverage global support through technical assistance and financial aid.

Fiscal Challenges in Small States

• Fiscal Vulnerability: Small states face heightened fiscal risks due to their vulnerability to global shocks and frequent natural disasters.
• Debt Levels: Government debt has risen sharply, with two-fifths of EMDE small states at high risk of debt distress.
• Fiscal Deficits: Deficits have widened since the pandemic due to increased government spending and weaker revenues.
• Policy Options:
  • Enhance domestic revenue mobilization.
  • Improve spending efficiency, especially in health, education, and infrastructure.
  • Establish resilient fiscal frameworks, including better fiscal rules and sovereign wealth funds.
  • Seek global financial support for climate resilience and other priorities.

Policy Challenges

• Monetary Policy: EMDEs need to maintain focus on price stability and manage inflationary pressures.
• Fiscal Sustainability: Policymakers must find ways to boost investment while ensuring fiscal sustainability.
• Structural Reforms: To meet development goals, structural reforms are necessary to raise productivity, improve public investment efficiency, build human capital, and close gender gaps in the labor market.

Conclusion

Despite the avoidance of a global recession, the global economy remains in a fragile state. Growth is too slow to meet development targets, and risks are still tilted to the downside. The report underscores the importance of international cooperation, policy reforms, and fiscal discipline in navigating the current economic landscape and building a more resilient and prosperous future.

Key Information

• Cutoff Date for Data: June 4, 2024.
• License: Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO.
• ISSN: 1014-8906.
• ISBN (paper): 978-1-4648-2058-8.
• ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-2059-5.
• DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-2058-8.
• Report Authors: The report is produced by the Prospects Group in the World Bank's Development Economics Vice Presidency, with contributions from numerous staff members and external experts.

Summary of Growth Projections

Summary of Inflation Projections

Summary of Fiscal Challenges

• Debt Distress: 2/5 of EMDE small states at high risk of debt distress.
• Fiscal Deficits: Increased due to pandemic-related spending and weak revenues.
• Climate Vulnerability: Small states face eight times more climate-related natural disasters than other EMDEs.

Policy Recommendations

• Global Level: Safeguard trade, support green and digital transitions, deliver debt relief, and improve food security.
• National Level: Focus on price stability, enhance fiscal space, and improve public investment efficiency.
• Small States: Improve domestic revenue mobilization, enhance spending efficiency, and build resilient fiscal frameworks.

Acknowledgments

The report is supported by the Policy and Human Resources Development (PHRD) Fund from the Government of Japan. It includes contributions from a wide range of World Bank staff, country teams, and external experts.