世界银行-_全球经济展望_（英）-2025.6_138页_4mb

Global Economic Prospects June 2025: Key Summary

Growth Context and Challenges

1. Slowing Growth and Trade Uncertainty:

   • Global growth is projected at 2.3% in 2025, the slowest pace since 2008 aside from outright recessions.
   • Trade tensions and heightened policy uncertainty are the primary drivers, dampening investment and external demand.
   • EMDEs face a deficit in fiscal space, limiting their ability to respond to economic shocks.

2. Per Capita Income and Poverty:

   • Per-capita income convergence with advanced economies is slow, hindering poverty reduction.
   • Extreme poverty remains high in LICs and FCS (Fragile & Conflict-Affected Situations), though recent gains have stalled due to conflicts and economic headwinds.

3. Jobs Challenge:

   • Many EMDEs struggle with job creation, especially in SSA, SAR, and MNA, due to rapid population aging.
   • Youth unemployment is acute in many regions, requiring targeted policies to integrate informal workers.

4. Climate and Disaster Risks:

   • Extreme weather events, including droughts and floods, amplify economic losses in already fragile economies.
   • Climate change poses long-term risks to growth, necessitating adaptation measures and reduced emissions.

5. Geopolitical Instability:

   • Conflicts in Middle East, Ukraine, and the Democratic Republic of Congo exacerbate humanitarian crises and economic downturns.
   • Aid cuts by donors strain fiscal positions and deepen poverty in vulnerable regions.

Policy Priorities

1. Trade Cooperation:

   • Strengthen multilateral institutions to resolve disputes and stabilize global trade.
   • Reform agricultural subsidies in developed countries to lower food price volatility affecting LICs.

2. Fiscal Management:

   • Fiscal consolidation is needed in many EMDEs, but balancing revenue mobilization and debt sustainability is complex.
   • Improve tax collection and prioritize spending for climate resilience and poverty reduction.

3. Structural Reforms and Innovation:

   • Enhance human capital through education and skills training to boost productivity.
   • Accelerate private investment by addressing regulatory bottlenecks, particularly in FCS economies.

4. Climate Action and Disaster Resilience:

   • Scale up climate adaptation to protect agriculture and infrastructure from disasters.
   • Align growth with carbon neutrality, especially in industrializing regions.

5. Addressing the Informal Economy:

   • Policies formalizing informal work will expand fiscal space and create better jobs for youth in emerging markets.

Conclusion: While production, trade, and investment are expected to remain subdued, navigating current risks requires international cooperation and tailoring policies to conflict-affected regions. This editorial summary distills the key findings of the June 2025 Global Economic Prospects report.