2024-06-16-世界银行-2024全球经济展望（英）_220页_6mb

报告摘要

Global Economic Prospects Summary (June 2024)

Core Content

The Global Economic Prospects report for June 2024 provides an analysis of the current and future state of the global economy, highlighting key trends, risks, and policy challenges. It focuses on global growth, inflation, trade, fiscal policy, and the role of public investment, especially in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) and small states.

Main Points

Global Economic Outlook

Growth: Global growth is projected to stabilize at 2.6% in 2024, holding steady for the first time in three years, despite geopolitical tensions and high interest rates.
2025-2026: Growth is expected to rise slightly to 2.7%, driven by modest expansions in trade and investment.
Inflation: Global inflation is expected to moderate, but at a slower pace than previously assumed, averaging 3.5% in 2024.
Interest Rates: Central banks in both advanced and EMDEs will likely remain cautious in easing monetary policy, with benchmark interest rates expected to remain about double the 2000–19 average.

Regional Prospects

East Asia and Pacific: Growth is expected to slow due to China's moderation, which is the region's largest economy.
Europe and Central Asia: Growth is projected to decelerate due to the slowdown in key economies.
Latin America and the Caribbean: Growth is expected to slow as well.
Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Growth is projected to pick up this year, though less robustly than previously forecast.
South Asia: Growth is also expected to improve, but at a moderate pace.
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA): Growth is projected to increase, albeit less robustly than in previous years.

Key Challenges

Global Growth: Growth remains too slow to meet development goals, averaging 2.7% through 2026, which is well below the 3.1% average before the pandemic.
Fiscal Challenges: Many developing economies are still growing more slowly than before the pandemic, and nearly half will see their per capita income gap widen relative to advanced economies in the first half of the 2020s.
Debt Distress: Two-fifths of the 35 EMDE small states are at high risk of debt distress or already in it, which is twice the share for other EMDEs.
Climate Risks: Small states face eight times the frequency of climate-related natural disasters compared to other developing economies.

Key Information

Public Investment

Public investment is a powerful policy lever for growth in EMDEs, capable of boosting GDP by up to 1.6% over the medium term if scaled up by 1% of GDP.
It also crowds in private investment and boosts productivity, contributing to long-run growth.
However, public investment in EMDEs has slowed significantly over the past decade.
To maximize its impact, EMDEs should focus on improving public investment efficiency through governance reforms and fiscal measures.

Policy Recommendations

Fiscal Space: EMDEs should seek to expand fiscal space through revenue and expenditure reforms.
Spending Efficiency: Improving the efficiency of public spending, especially in health, education, and infrastructure, is crucial.
Global Support: The global community should provide financial and technical support, particularly for low-income countries and small states.
Fiscal Frameworks: Establishing robust fiscal frameworks and fiscal rules can help manage shocks and natural disasters.

Risks and Uncertainties

Global Risks: The outlook remains tilted to the downside, with risks including escalating geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, and persistent inflation.
Commodity Prices: Volatile commodity prices could result from geopolitical tensions.
Trade Policy Uncertainty: Trade policy uncertainty has reached exceptionally high levels, especially in years with major elections.
Interest Rates: A higher-for-longer path for interest rates could dampen global activity.
Natural Disasters: Additional climate-related natural disasters could hinder economic activity.

Bright Spots

United States: The U.S. economy has shown impressive resilience, even amid fiercest monetary tightening in four decades.
India and Indonesia: Both are robust performers, with India expected to grow at 6.7% annually from 2024 to 2026 and Indonesia at 5.1%.
Global Resilience: The world has avoided a global recession, but growth rates remain too slow for progress.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the need for stronger international cooperation and policy reforms to advance shared prosperity and address global and regional challenges. It highlights the importance of public investment, especially in EMDEs, and the urgent fiscal needs of small states, particularly in climate resilience and debt management.

References

The report draws on recent developments, data analysis, and literature reviews to inform its findings.
It references global and regional trends, policy responses, and economic indicators such as GDP, inflation, and trade.