亚开行-衡量，监测和实施增长质量_-_对中国的启示（宏观）（英文）-2018.10-6页

报告摘要

ADB Brief Summary: Measuring, Monitoring, and Operationalizing Quality of Growth—Implications for the People's Republic of China

Core Content

This ADB brief discusses the concept of Inclusive Green Growth (IGG) and its measurement through the Inclusive Green Growth Index (IGGI). It highlights the shift in global development priorities from focusing solely on economic growth (quantity) to emphasizing the quality of growth, which includes social equity and environmental sustainability.

Main Viewpoints

Global Development Shift: The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement have shifted development priorities from economic growth quantity to quality, emphasizing inclusive and green growth.
Need for New Metrics: Traditional GDP-based indicators are insufficient to capture the multidimensional nature of development. A new measure, the IGGI, is introduced to reflect the quality of growth across three pillars: economic growth, social equity, and environmental sustainability.
China's Growth Pattern: The PRC exhibits a high quantity-low quality growth pattern, with significant challenges in environmental sustainability. The IGGI highlights these gaps and provides a framework to monitor and improve quality growth.
Policy Implications: The PRC needs to address disparities and promote sustainable development by improving the environmental pillar, reducing inequality, and managing demographic shifts.

Key Information

IGGI Overview

The Inclusive Green Growth Index (IGGI) is a composite index designed to measure the quality of growth.
It includes three pillars:
- Economic Growth: Measured by GDP and related indicators.
- Social Equity: Assessed through income distribution, poverty, and access to services.
- Environmental Sustainability: Evaluated using indicators like carbon intensity, energy efficiency, and water use.
The Balanced-IGGI adjusts the index to reflect the cross-pillar balance, ensuring that no single pillar dominates the overall score.

China's Performance

In 2005, the PRC had an IGGI score of 4.27, ranking 2nd among 24 developing member countries.
By 2015, the IGGI score had dropped to 3.96, and the PRC ranked 5th.
The total gap across pillars increased from 4.33 in 2005 to 4.59 in 2015.
The adjusted IGGI score was 3.61 in 2005 and 3.42 in 2015, reflecting the imbalance in pillar performance.

Environmental Pillar Challenges

The PRC's low environmental score is primarily due to carbon dioxide emissions, energy intensity, and low renewable fresh water resources.
Air pollution indicators are also low, indicating the need for more aggressive environmental policies.

Social and Economic Pillar Trends

Social Equity: The Gini coefficient and poverty gap are increasing, signaling growing inequality.
Economic Growth: The age dependency ratio is rising, while the household savings rate is falling due to population aging.

Policy Recommendations

The PRC should monitor and address gaps across all three pillars to improve the Balanced-IGGI score.
Environmental sustainability must be a key focus, especially with the "blue skies" initiative and efforts to promote green industries.
The IGGI should be used as a core policy tool to guide decision-making and align with global development goals.

Challenges with Composite Indices

Pros:
- Can summarize complex, multidimensional realities.
- Easier to interpret than separate indicators.
- Useful for monitoring progress and policy analysis.
- Facilitates public communication and accountability.
Cons:
- Risk of misleading policy messages if not well-constructed.
- May lead to simplistic conclusions.
- Subjectivity in indicator selection and weighting.
- Can hide serious failings in certain dimensions.
- Fixed aggregation methods limit flexibility in policy priorities.

Conclusion

The IGGI provides a new benchmark for measuring the quality of growth, which is essential for the PRC to move from a quantity-driven to a quality-driven development model. The index highlights the need for balanced growth across economic, social, and environmental dimensions. Continued efforts in environmental sustainability, social equity, and economic restructuring are critical to achieving this goal.