20180821-招商证券_香港_-碧桂园-02007.HK-Moving_into_a_lower_gear_7页_1mb

报告摘要

Country Garden (2007 HK) Summary

Core Content

Country Garden (2007 HK) reported strong first-half of 2018 (1H18) results, with a core profit increase of 80% YoY to RMB13bn, exceeding market expectations of +50%. The DPS (Dividend per Share) rose 23% to RMB0.1852. Despite the strong performance, the company has shifted its strategy to prioritize safety over asset churn, which may lead to a slowdown in land banking, particularly in T3/4/5 cities. This strategic shift is likely to reduce the upside potential from its previous blue-ocean strategy in these cities, partially justifying the recent derating of its share price.

The company is currently trading at a 15% discount to NAV (Net Asset Value), with a 5.4x P/E ratio for 2019E and a dividend yield of 6-8% for 2018-20E. Based on these metrics, the Target Price (TP) has been revised up to HK$13, reflecting a 15% discount to NAV of HK$15.3. The rating remains NEUTRAL, indicating a cautious outlook on the potential impact of the strategy shift on future performance.

Financial Highlights

Revenue and Profit Growth

Revenue (RMB mn): 153,087 (2016), 226,900 (2017), 335,315 (2018E), 445,394 (2019E), 533,742 (2020E)
Growth (%): 35% (2016), 48% (2017), 48% (2018E), 33% (2019E), 20% (2020E)
Core Profit (RMB mn): 11,061 (2016), 22,493 (2017), 33,171 (2018E), 42,769 (2019E), 50,385 (2020E)
Core Profit Growth (%): 5% (2016), 103% (2017), 47% (2018E), 29% (2019E), 18% (2020E)
Core EPS (RMB): 0.50 (2016), 1.04 (2017), 1.53 (2018E), 1.97 (2019E), 2.32 (2020E)
DPS (RMB): 0.17 (2016), 0.40 (2017), 0.59 (2018E), 0.75 (2019E), 0.89 (2020E)
P/E (x): 21.0 (2016), 10.1 (2017), 6.9 (2018E), 5.4 (2019E), 4.5 (2020E)
ROE (%): 16% (2016), 27% (2017), 30% (2018E), 30% (2019E), 29% (2020E)

Net Asset Value (NAV)

NAV (HK$): 15.3 (2018E)
Discount to NAV (%): 15% (2018E)
Target Price (TP): HK$13.0 (up from HK$12.0)
52-week range (HK$): 9.65–19.16
Market Cap (HK$ mn): 245,941
Avg. Daily Volume (mn): 61.71
BVPS (HK$): 4.32

Key Data and Analysis

Land Banking Strategy: Country Garden is focusing on T1/2 cities for its potential land bank, which is 124mn sqm compared to the existing 364mn sqm. This shift may slow down asset churn in T3/4/5 cities due to tighter policies.
Gross Margin: Remained high at 26.5% in 1H18, showing strong profitability.
Net Gearing: Increased to 59% in June 2018 due to faster land banking.
Performance Comparison: Country Garden's share price performance has been -8.0% in 1 month, -16.7% in 6 months, and +23.5% in 12 months. The Hang Seng Index (HSI) had -2.2%, -10.6%, and +2.0% over the same periods.

Peer Comparison

Company	Ticker	Share Price (HK$)	TP (HK$)	Rating	Mkt Cap (US$ m)	NAV (%)	Disc to NAV (%)	Disc to Mkt NAV (%)	Upside (%)	P/E (2018E)	P/E (2019E)	P/E (2020E)	P/B (2018E)	P/B (2019E)	Yield (%)
Vanke	2202 HK	25.90	36.0	Buy	38.5	40	35	44	39	8.7	6.9	5.7	1.6	1.3	5.2
Country Garden	2007 HK	12.32	13.0	Neutral	34.0	15	19	46	6	10.3	6.9	5.4	1.8	1.5	5.5
Evergrande	3333 HK	28.40	29.0	Buy	47.5	36	21	23	2	8.2	6.7	6.0	2.1	1.6	-
COLI	688 HK	24.10	32.0	Buy	33.9	35	31	40	33	7.7	6.3	5.2	0.8	0.7	4.4
Sunac	1918 HK	25.35	36.0	Buy	14.3	45	44	59	42	21.4	8.3	4.9	1.8	1.4	3.0
Longfor	960 HK	21.25	28.0	Buy	16.2	31	31	45	32	11.0	8.7	6.8	1.4	1.2	4.6
CR Land	1109 HK	28.55	-	NR	25.4	-	-	36	-	9.0	6.9	5.9	1.1	0.9	5.8
Shimao Prop	813 HK	22.65	-	NR	9.7	-	-	59	-	9.6	7.2	5.7	1.0	0.9	5.4
Logan	3380 HK	9.86	-	NR	6.9	-	-	47	-	10.3	6.7	4.9	0.8	0.7	6.2
Guangzhou R&F	2777 HK	15.12	-	NR	6.2	-	-	58	-	5.6	4.1	3.3	0.6	0.6	5.0
Agile	3383 HK	12.00	-	NR	6.0	-	-	53	-	6.7	5.5	4.4	0.9	0.8	6.2
Jinmao	817 HK	3.41	-	NR	5.0	-	-	59	-	8.1	6.6	5.1	0.9	0.8	6.4
CIFI	884 HK	4.79	-	NR	4.8	-	-	55	-	7.2	5.7	4.4	0.9	0.8	6.4
Sino-Ocean	3377 HK	4.27	-	NR	4.2	-	-	63	-	6.9	5.6	4.6	0.5	0.5	7.7
Future Land	1030 HK	6.25	-	NR	4.7	-	-	60	-	9.9	8.3	4.9	1.8	1.4	5.4
KWG	1813 HK	8.92	-	NR	3.6	-	-	57	-	6.8	5.3	4.0	0.8	0.7	6.7
SZI	604 HK	2.62	-	NR	2.8	-	-	53	-	5.6	4.1	3.3	0.6	0.6	5.0
Greentown	3900 HK	8.41	-	NR	2.3	-	-	59	-	9.5	7.4	6.6	0.5	0.5	2.7
Yuzhou	1628 HK	4.02	-	NR	2.2	-	-	69	-	5.0	3.8	2.9	0.9	0.8	9.3
Times	1233 HK	9.48	-	NR	2.2	-	-	68	-	5.7	4.4	3.4	0.8	0.7	6.7
Aoyuan	3883 HK	5.90	-	NR	2.0	-	-	65	-	7.2	5.9	4.2	0.9	0.8	5.7
Ronshine	3301 HK	9.61	-	NR	2.0	-	-	62	-	-	4.4	2.9	0.9	0.8	4.0
China SCE	1966 HK	3.36	-	NR	1.6	-	-	63	-	5.4	4.3	3.3	0.8	0.7	6.2
Poly	119 HK	3.11	-	NR	1.5	-	-	53	-	9.0	6.9	5.9	1.1	1.0	5.8
CCRE	832 HK	3.35	-	NR	1.2	-	-	59	-	8.1	6.6	5.1	0.9	0.8	6.4

Investment Rating

Industry Rating: OVERWEIGHT (expect sector to outperform the market)
Company Rating: NEUTRAL (expect stock to generate +10% to -10% return over the next 12 months)

Analyst Disclosure

The analysts involved in preparing this report certify that:

The views expressed accurately reflect their personal opinions.
No compensation was, is, or will be related to the specific recommendations or views in this report.

Regulatory Disclaimer

This document is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. It is prepared by China Merchants Securities (HK) Co., Ltd. and is subject to change without prior notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all estimates and forecasts are based on assumptions that may not materialize. Investors are advised to independently evaluate investments and strategies.

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