2025-06-13-花旗集团-宝山钢铁（600019）_宝山钢铁（600019.SS）_模型更新_11页_320kb

报告摘要

Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019.SS) Model Update Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an updated financial model and investment analysis for Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019.SS), reflecting the latest management guidance and financial performance from FY24 and 1Q25. The analysis highlights key financial metrics, valuation ratios, and investment ratings, while also outlining potential risks and disclosures related to the research.

Key Financial Highlights

Earnings Forecast (RmbM)

2023A: 11,944 | Diluted EPS: 0.550 | EPS growth: 0.1%
2024A: 7,363 | Diluted EPS: 0.342 | EPS growth: -37.8%
2025E: 12,559 | Diluted EPS: 0.584 | EPS growth: +70.6%
2026E: 16,617 | Diluted EPS: 0.773 | EPS growth: +32.3%
2027E: 18,758 | Diluted EPS: 0.872 | EPS growth: +12.9%

Valuation Ratios

P/E (x): 12.2 (2023), 19.7 (2024), 11.5 (2025E), 8.7 (2026E), 7.7 (2027E)
P/B (x): 0.7 (2023), 0.7 (2024), 0.7 (2025E), 0.7 (2026E), 0.6 (2027E)
EV/EBITDA (x): 5.4 (2023), 6.6 (2024), 4.8 (2025E), 3.7 (2026E), 3.2 (2027E)
Dividend Yield (%): 4.6 (2023), 3.1 (2024), 4.8 (2025E), 6.3 (2026E), 7.1 (2027E)
ROE (%): 6.0 (2023), 3.7 (2024), 6.1 (2025E), 7.8 (2026E), 8.4 (2027E)

Earnings and Margins

EBIT (Adj) Margin (%): 4.5 (2023), 2.8 (2024), 5.4 (2025E), 6.9 (2026E), 7.7 (2027E)
Gross Margin (%): 5.9 (2023), 5.1 (2024), 7.2 (2025E), 8.7 (2026E), 9.5 (2027E)
Net Margin (%): 3.5 (2023), 2.3 (2024), 4.0 (2025E), 5.3 (2026E), 5.9 (2027E)

Investment Metrics

Target Price: Rmb8.200
Current Price: Rmb6.730
Expected Share Price Return: 21.8%
Expected Total Return: 26.6%
Market Cap: Rmb147,445M / US$20,555M

Key Investment Recommendations

Rating: Buy
Target Price: Rmb8.200
Price Appreciation: Expected to be 21.8% over 12 months
Dividend Yield: Expected to increase from 4.6% in 2023 to 7.1% in 2027
ROE: Expected to rise from 3.7% in 2024 to 8.4% in 2027

Key Risks

Downside Risks:
1. Auto production slowdown and reduced steel demand could lower prices.
2. Higher raw material costs may impact margins.
3. Restart of steel-making capacity could increase supply and reduce prices.
4. Market volatility and unexpected events affecting the company or sector.

Valuation Analysis

The target price of Rmb8.2/sh is based on a 0.85x P/B multiple for 2025E, aligning with the average P/B multiple since 2010.
Baosteel is currently trading at 0.7x PB, suggesting potential upside.
The 2025E ROE is expected to rise to 6.1%, up from 3.7% in 2024.

Catalyst Watch and Short-Term Views

Catalyst Watch: Indicates the analyst expects the share price to move in a specific direction over 30 or 90 days due to near-term events.
Catalyst Watch/STV Upside/Downside calls are used to signal potential short-term price movements, but do not affect the fundamental equity rating.
Catalyst Watch is issued when confidence is high, and STV when confidence is moderate.
The Catalyst Watch for Baosteel was removed on 13-Sep-24.

Analyst Information

Analyst: Jack Shang, CFA
Contact: +852-2501-2441 | jack.shang@citi.com
Citi Research Affiliation: Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
Conflict of Interest: Citi may have a financial interest in Baoshan Iron & Steel, and analysts may receive compensation for arranging corporate access events.

Disclosure and Compliance

Non-US Research Analysts: Not registered with FINRA, and may not be subject to Rule 2241 restrictions.
Liquidity and Investment Banking: Citi may be a liquidity provider and has investment banking services with Baoshan Iron & Steel.
Disclosure Website: https://www.citivelocity.com/cvr/eppublic/citi_research_disclosures

Summary of Key Points

Baosteel's earnings are expected to recover significantly, with a 70.6% growth in 2025E.
The target price remains Rmb8.200, based on a 0.85x P/B multiple.
The current price is Rmb6.730, indicating a potential 21.8% return.
The dividend yield is projected to increase from 4.6% to 7.1% over the next few years.
The ROE is expected to rise to 8.4% in 2027.
Key risks include auto production slowdown, supply overhang, and cost increases.
Catalyst Watch is a tool to highlight short-term price movements, but does not override the fundamental rating.
Conflicts of interest are acknowledged, with Citi having investment banking relationships with Baoshan Iron & Steel.