2025-06-12-花旗集团-上海万业企业（600641）_上海万业企业（600641.SS）_更新我们的模型_14页_636kb

Citigroup Research Summary: Shanghai Wanye Enterprises (600640.SS)

• Recommendation: Sell – maintained despite updates.

• Key Factors:

  • Revenue outlook improved by controlling shareholder Vital Group, with bismuth sales expected to contribute ~Rmb400mn in 2025.
  • Semiconductor equipment sales via Kingstone and Joysing slower than anticipated, leading to lower earnings estimates due to conservative margin assumptions.
  • Winding down legacy real estate business, which had high profitability, reduces revenue and profit scaling.
  • New material business may drive growth but faces export controls and price volatility.

• Financial Highlights:

  • Target price lowered to Rmb13.0 from Rmb13.5, based on 1.5x 2025E P/B.
  • Expected share price return of -6.0%, dividend yield of 0.1%, total expected return of -5.9%.
  • Earnings forecasts revised downward due to slower semiconductor advancements.
  • TP reflects discount from historical P/B multiples, justified by current revenue and profit performance.

• Risks:

  • Upside: Strong domestic semiconductor demand, government localization policies, successful supply substitution.
  • Downside: Supply risks from US BIS Entity List for Kingstone, slower revenue growth, market cap volatility.