20240603-兴证期货-纯苯_苯乙烯日度报告_7页_482kb

Global Commodity Research · Pure Benzene & Styrene Monomer

Daily Report

June 3, 2024

Summary

This report presents an analysis of the current market conditions and outlook for pure benzene ("纯苯") and styrene monomer ("苯乙烯").

Market Prices:

• Pure Benzene:
  • Spot price in East China reached 9375 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week.
  • Northeast Asia ethylene price was 850 dollars/ton, slightly lower by 5.
• Styrene Monomer:
  • Spot price in East China stabilized at 9880 yuan/ton, increased by 40.
• Futures: The main contract for EB (likely a type of styrene monomer derivative) closed at 9730 yuan/ton, a significant 6.9% increase from the previous day. The basis stood at 150 (-27) yuan/ton.

Market Outlook & Analysis:

• Styrene Monomer Prices: Prices for styrene monomer recently set another phase-high, driven by strong support mentioned later in the analysis.

• Fundamental Drivers:

  • Cost Factors: High propylene prices (linked directly to benzene for styrene production cost) maintain strong pricing power.
  • Supply: Pure benzene supply remains tight in the second quarter due to limited shutdowns. The high price and valuation of pure benzene are expected to persist.
  • Oil Prices: International crude prices fell due to concerns over global economic slowdown and demand, though the agreement for OPEC+ to continue voluntary cuts until the end of the year offers some stability. Thus, the oil price fluctuations have tilted towards decreasing prices.

• Demand/Supply Dynamics:

  • Styrene M1 domestic plant开工率环比 increased by 0.66 percentage points reaching 70.08%.
  • Demand Side: While some consolidation is noted, overall demand for styrene monomer remains ok, supported by relatively good terminal production schedules.
  • Currently, only EPS (Expandable Polystyrene) is profitable among downstream products, while ABS and PS-GPPS are operating near breakeven.

• Inventory: Total domestic inventories for styrene monomer continued to decrease. Inventory levels for pure benzene and styrene monomer are both dropping, providing support to styrene monomer prices.

• Pricing Support: Despite mixed news on oil and slower demand in some areas, supply-side constraints (tight pure benzene, falling inventories) outweigh demand-side questions. The high base acts as a strong support level surrounding the 9300 yuan/ton benchmark.

Short-Term Outlook: Styrene monomer is expected to maintain a high-level sideways pattern (high strong reality relative to weak future expectations). The supply-demand imbalance remains marginal at present, suggesting lower risks for a sharp decline. The price has further upside potential following the increase in pure benzene prices.

Disclaimer: Market conditions are volatile and influenced by various factors. This report provides analysis based on publicly available data and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The information provided is for general guidance only and does not constitute an investment recommendation.