2024-08-18-世界银行-全球灾后快速损失评估（GRADE）报告_2024年飓风贝里尔-圣文森特和格林纳丁斯_截至2024年7月26日的报告（英）_29页_1mb

GRADE Report Summary: Hurricane Beryl 2024, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

• Purpose: Provided rapid estimate of direct economic damage from Hurricane Beryl to physical assets, supporting early recovery planning.

• Event:

  • Hurricane Beryl made landfall on July 1, 2024, with Category 4 winds (up to 150 mph) in Southern Grenadines and Tropical Storm force winds in Saint Vincent.
  • Peaked as a Category 5 hurricane, making it the earliest recorded Category 5 storm in the Atlantic and one of the costliest for SVG since at least 1900.

• Damage Estimates:

  • Total estimated damage: $230.6 million (22% of 2023 GDP).
  • Sector Breakdown:
    • Building damage (81% of total): $158.9 million (residential: $79.1 million; non-residential: $79.8 million).
    • Infrastructure damage: $71.7 million (e.g., power, telecoms, water networks).
    • Agriculture damage: Minor ($6 million equivalent).
  • Spatial Distribution:
    • Southern Grenadines worst hit (81% of total damage, $186.8 million), with Union Island ($93.9 million) and Canouan ($50.7 million) sustaining the most. Saint Vincent had ~10% of total damage ($21.2 million).

• Methodology:

  • GRADE remote-based rapid assessment using exposure models, satellite data (Copernicus EMS), and historical comparisons.
  • Relys on asset exposure data (replacements value: $5.91 billion) calibrated with observed damage and engineering approaches.
  • Confidence: Lower at individual asset level; results presented at island/census division scale.

• Key Insights:

  • Over 90% of buildings use sheet metal roofs, highly vulnerable to wind damage.
  • Vulnerable population (52% in Southern Grenadines) is concentrated in areas with high damage; recovery must address social inequalities.
  • Tourism sector (e.g., resorts on Union/Petit Saint Vincent) accounts for 20% of damage and is critical to SVG economy.
  • Recommendations: Prioritize resilient reconstruction (e.g., structural retrofits); focus on protecting women and informal sector employment.

• Historical Context:

  • SVG has limited major hurricane experience (>125 years), with prior damage estimates (e.g., Hurricane Allen 1980) being 16-7% of GDP.
  • GRADE estimates confirm Beryl as costliest hurricane to impact SVG on record.

• Conclusion:

  • Urges action on climate-resilient recovery for vulnerable populations and infrastructure, noting potential for significant reduction in future damage through structural improvements.