2018年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Trumps_trade_policy_turns_destructive_3页_436kb

Trump's Trade Policy Summary

Core Content

President Trump's trade policy, particularly his imposition of import tariffs on steel and aluminium, has triggered a series of retaliatory measures from major trading partners, including the EU, Canada, and China. This approach is seen as a departure from the rules-based international trade system, leading to a potential resurgence of destructive trade wars reminiscent of the 1930s.

Main Points

• Tariff Announcement: On March 2nd, Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and 10% on aluminium imports, citing national security concerns under Section 232 of the US Trade Expansion Act.
• Global Reaction: The sudden and non-discriminatory nature of the tariffs caused widespread backlash and immediate threats of retaliation from key trading partners.
• Unintended Consequences: The tariffs may not effectively target Chinese steel exports, which are already constrained by other trade measures, but instead impact other steel and aluminium suppliers.
• Economic Impact: The tariffs are likely to cause more job losses in sectors that rely on steel and aluminium (e.g., automotive, construction) than they create in the steel industry itself.
• Uncertainty and Investment: The unpredictable and protectionist nature of the policy undermines trade and investment confidence, especially in ongoing or planned trade negotiations with the US.
• EU Response: The EU is considering safeguard measures to limit imports that could threaten its domestic industries, in response to the US tariffs.
• Retaliation Risk: The tariffs may lead to broader trade restrictions and retaliatory measures across other product sectors, increasing the risk of further trade tensions.

Key Information

• Tariff Rationale: Trump justified the tariffs as a national security measure, a rarely used argument in WTO negotiations.
• Tariff Levels: 25% on steel and 10% on aluminium.
• Impact on China: Despite being a major steel supplier, China's exports are already heavily restricted by existing trade measures, making the new tariffs less impactful on it.
• Job Losses: US steel employment dropped 38% since 1998, and aluminium jobs declined by 58% between 2013 and 2016.
• Safeguard Measures: These are WTO-compliant tools used to limit imports that threaten domestic industries, and the EU is considering their use.
• Retaliation Threats: Trump threatened additional tariffs on EU cars if the EU retaliates, indicating a potential escalation.
• Global Leadership: The EU and China are seen as key players in promoting responsible global trade, but Trump's unilateral actions challenge this leadership model.

Conclusion

Trump's trade policy represents a significant shift towards protectionism, with potentially severe and unpredictable consequences for global trade. The use of national security as a rationale for tariffs, combined with the lack of clear justification and the impulsive nature of the policy, risks reigniting a cycle of trade wars that could harm the global economy. The EU and other trading partners are now faced with the challenge of countering these measures while maintaining their commitment to multilateral trade rules and cooperation.