2009年-世界发展银行全球_Hashemite_Kingdom_of_Jordan_-_Poverty_Update___Appendices_63页_804kb

Jordan Poverty Update - Volume II: Appendices Summary

Core Content

This document provides detailed technical information and statistical analysis related to poverty in Jordan, particularly focusing on price indices, expenditure patterns, and the impact of policy changes on poverty. It is part of a two-volume report, with Volume II focusing on appendices that support the findings in Volume I.

Main Points

1. Analysis of Prices

1.1 Spatial Price Indices by Governorates

• Jordan has 12 Governorates, and the spatial price indices are calculated based on a consumption basket of 452 items (193 food items).
• The national price index is used as a reference point (100), and the spatial price indices reflect the relative cost of living in each Governorate.
• Key Observations:
  • Mafraq and Ajlun have the lowest cost of living in terms of both food and non-food items.
  • Amman has the highest non-food price index (104.8), indicating a 4.8% increase over the national average.
  • The average of the food and non-food price indices for the Whole Kingdom is 100.

1.2 Consumer Price Indices (CPI)

• CPI measures changes in the cost of living over time.
• The base year for CPI is 2002 (set to 100).
• The CPI for the Whole Kingdom in 2006 is 115.51, indicating a significant increase in inflation.
• Key Observations:
  • Overall inflation between 2002 and 2006 was 15.51%.
  • Food prices increased by 19.70%, while non-food prices increased by 13.14%.
  • The CPI varies across Governorates, reflecting different economic conditions and price trends.

2. Analysis of Expenditures

2.1 Per Capita Expenditure

• The 2002-03 HIES and 2006 HIES were used to compare expenditures.
• The recall period for expenditures is quarterly, making it difficult to compare growth rates across different time periods.
• Key Observations:
  • In 2002-03, 36.3% of total expenditure was on food, decreasing to 33.3% in 2006.
  • Non-food expenditure increased from 60.3% to 63.1%.
  • The poor spent a higher proportion of their income on food, decreasing from 40.9% to 38.5%.
  • The poor also spent a higher proportion on alcohol and tobacco (6.0% vs. 3.5%).

2.2 Gini Index and Quintile Shares

• The Gini index, a measure of income inequality, declined by 4.2% between 2002 and 2006, indicating a reduction in inequality.
• The share of the first quintile (poorest 20%) increased by 7.8%, while the second and third quintiles also saw increases in their shares.
• Key Observations:
  • The growth in per capita expenditure was pro-poor, as the poorest quintile experienced higher growth.
  • The Gini index in 2002 was 39.3, and in 2006 it was 37.6.
  • Quintile shares for the first quintile increased from 6.7% to 7.2%.

2.3 Growth Rates in Per Capita Real Expenditures

• Real per capita expenditure was calculated by deflating nominal values using food and non-food price indices.
• The overall growth in real per capita expenditure for the Whole Kingdom was 9.5%.
• Key Observations:
  • Maan Governorate had the highest growth at 20.2%.
  • Amman and Balqa had moderate growth (6.1% and 4.6% respectively).
  • Karak and Tafiela experienced declines in real per capita expenditure by 11.8% and 10% respectively.

3. Construction of Poverty Line

• Poverty lines were constructed based on calorie intake and expenditure data.
• Key Observations:
  • The poverty line for food is calculated based on the minimum daily caloric requirement and the cost of meeting that requirement.
  • The non-food poverty line was also developed, considering the cost of non-food items.
  • Food poverty lines and non-food poverty lines vary by Governorate, reflecting different price levels.

4. Incidence of Poverty

• The poverty incidence in Jordan in 2006 was analyzed at both national and subnational levels.
• Key Observations:
  • The overall incidence of poverty is measured.
  • Poverty rates vary between urban and rural areas.
  • The percentage of poor population by quarters and Governorates is presented.

5. Depth of Poverty

• The depth of poverty is measured using the poverty depth index.
• Key Observations:
  • The poverty depth index shows how deep the poverty is among the poor population.
  • This index helps in understanding the extent of poverty beyond just the incidence.

6. Labor Market Analysis (2006)

• The labor market was analyzed in terms of dependency ratios, education profiles, employment status, and other characteristics.
• Key Observations:
  • The dependency ratio was calculated.
  • Education status of the population (15 years and older) was analyzed.
  • Employment status of the population (15 years and older) was also analyzed.
  • Education and employability, as well as earnings from employment, were examined.
  • There is a correlation between education and employment outcomes.

7. Iraqi Population in Jordan

• The analysis includes the Iraqi population in Jordan, focusing on their economic and social conditions.
• Key Observations:
  • The population composition of Iraqis is presented.
  • Education and employment status of Iraqis were analyzed.
  • Income and poverty levels among Iraqi-headed households are compared.

Key Information

• The spatial price indices and CPI are used to assess the cost of living and inflation trends across Governorates.
• The per capita expenditure and Gini index indicate that the average standard of living has improved, and the growth has been pro-poor.
• The poverty line was developed using calorie intake and expenditure data, and it varies by Governorate.
• The labor market analysis shows that education is a significant determinant of employment and earnings.
• The Iraqi population in Jordan is analyzed in terms of their economic status and how it compares to the rest of the population.

Conclusion

The document provides a comprehensive analysis of poverty in Jordan in 2006, with a focus on price changes, expenditure patterns, and labor market characteristics. It highlights the pro-poor growth in real expenditures, the decline in income inequality, and the varying economic conditions across Governorates. Additionally, it includes detailed data on the Iraqi population, emphasizing their unique economic and social conditions. The technical details support the broader findings in the main report and offer a deeper understanding of the factors influencing poverty in Jordan.