2016年-世界发展银行全球_Hashemite_Kingdom_of_Jordan_Promoting_Poverty_Reduction_and_Shared_Prosperity___Systematic_Country_Diagnostic_135页_1mb

Summary of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD)

Core Content

This Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) report, prepared by the World Bank Group (WBG) in 2016, evaluates the economic structure, poverty reduction, and sustainability challenges of Jordan. It is designed to support the design of the Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for the period 2017-2022, and provides insights for both the WBG and the Government of Jordan (GOJ) in shaping interventions. The report is based on a comprehensive analysis of Jordan's macroeconomic sustainability, poverty and shared prosperity, and the constraints that hinder economic development and social stability.

Main Viewpoints

1. Economic Structure and Growth Dynamics

• Jordan's economy has been shaped by its geopolitical position and resource constraints, especially in water and energy.
• Despite its small size and vulnerability to regional shocks, Jordan has experienced relatively stable growth (averaging 4.9% real GDP growth from 1990 to 2014).
• However, growth has slowed since 2011, with projections of 3-4% in the next five years, which is below the pre-2011 average and insufficient to generate meaningful per capita growth.
• Productivity in the economy has been limited, particularly in labor-intensive sectors, leading to low-wage, low-skill jobs that are not attractive to Jordanians and are often filled by foreign workers.
• Private sector job creation has been limited, with the employment elasticity of growth declining from 1.16 (1990-99) to 0.53 (2000-09).

2. Poverty and Shared Prosperity

• Jordan's poverty rate (headcount index) was around 14%, but this is considered fragile due to high volatility and transition rates into poverty.
• Fiscal and external imbalances have squeezed lower quintile households, especially due to increased energy and transport costs.
• The Syrian refugee crisis has further exacerbated poverty and access to infrastructure in certain regions, particularly in areas with high refugee influx.
• Social sector services (health, education, etc.) are widely accessible, but quality varies due to financing and delivery mechanisms.

3. Macroeconomic Sustainability

• Jordan's public debt has exceeded several "red lines," and its capacity to buffer shocks is limited.
• Fiscal balances are tempered by foreign grants, but domestic funds are insufficient for current expenditures.
• Military spending is a major component of public expenditure, often exceeding other spending items.
• Current account deficits are in line with those of low-income countries, and reserves are comparable to upper middle-income countries.
• The public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to remain sustainable under baseline assumptions, but financing needs from the Syrian crisis have strained this.

4. Constraints to Development

• Business climate is rigid, limiting private sector growth and investment.
• Access to finance is a major constraint, especially for lower-income households and small businesses.
• Informality is prevalent, particularly in the private sector, due to regulatory and institutional barriers.
• Governance issues include lack of transparency and accountability, and inefficiencies in public administration.
• Public sector bias is a significant problem, with public sector employment being dominant and distorting labor market dynamics.
• Gender disparities persist, with lower labor force participation and unequal access to opportunities.
• Social safety nets are categorical and universal, but are evolving towards targeted approaches.
• Education and health systems face funding and delivery challenges, with low investment in education and quality concerns in health services.

Key Challenges and Opportunities

Economic and Social Constraints

• Risk management is inefficient, with excessive reliance on rents and external support.
• Geopolitical rents (from the GCC and international partners) have distorted economic behavior, leading to rentier tendencies and Dutch Disease effects.
• Fiscal and external imbalances continue to hinder long-term sustainability.
• Public sector dominance has limited private sector development and created labor market segmentation.
• Informal employment is widespread, particularly among migrants and youth.
• Gender inequality persists, with low female participation and unequal access to education and employment.

Opportunities for Reform

• Sectoral reforms in ICT, energy, and transport could enhance productivity and competitiveness.
• Renewable energy development offers potential for sustainable growth and reduced dependency on oil imports.
• Improving the business climate and access to finance could stimulate private sector investment and job creation.
• Enhancing education and vocational training could align skills with labor market demands.
• Revisiting the socio-political bargain could address the growing tensions between Jordanians and migrants.
• Strengthening governance and transparency could improve public service delivery and fiscal sustainability.

Prioritization and Policy Recommendations

• The SCD identifies sectoral and thematic priorities for economic development, including ICT, education, transport, and renewable energy.
• A systematic and integrative approach to sustainability is needed, especially in water, climate change, and energy.
• Reforms are required to address market distortions, including labor and capital markets.
• Risk management must be reformed to reduce reliance on external support and promote self-sufficiency.
• Public-private partnerships (PPPs) and financial instruments could enhance debt sustainability and infrastructure development.

Conclusion

The SCD highlights that while Jordan has managed to maintain economic stability despite significant external shocks, it faces persistent challenges in poverty reduction, economic growth, and social sustainability. The reliance on rents and external financing has distorted economic behavior and limited the potential for self-sustaining growth. To achieve shared prosperity, Jordan must reform its governance, business climate, and social policies, while enhancing productivity and aligning education with labor market needs. The Jordan 2025 strategy serves as a blueprint for these reforms, but systematic implementation and cross-sectoral coordination are essential to ensure long-term success.