2001年-世界发展银行全球_Kingdom_of_Morocco___Poverty_Update_Volume_2_Annexes_112页_6mb

Kingdom of Morocco Poverty Update Summary

Core Content

This report provides a detailed analysis of poverty trends in Morocco from 1990 to 1998, focusing on the methodology for measuring poverty, the incidence and depth of poverty, economies of scale in consumption, and changes in inequality over the period.

Main Points

1. Poverty Measurement and Analysis

• Poverty Line Methodology: The poverty lines are calculated using two components: a food poverty line and an allowance for basic non-food goods. The food poverty line is based on a minimum daily caloric requirement.
• Food Poverty Line: The 1998/99 food poverty line was derived from the 1990/91 poverty line, adjusted using the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
• Lower and Upper Poverty Lines: These lines represent different levels of non-food allowance. The lower poverty line assumes minimal non-food spending, while the upper poverty line assumes a more generous allowance.
• Poverty Incidence: In 1998/99, 19% of the population was classified as poor, with 5.3 million people living below the poverty line, up from 3.4 million in 1990/91.
• Rural Poverty: Poverty is predominantly a rural issue, with over 66% of the poor living in rural areas in 1998/99, compared to 73% in 1990/91.
• Economic Vulnerability: The number of economically vulnerable individuals increased by 30% during the 1990s. Raising the poverty line by 25% increased the poverty incidence to 32%, and by 50% to 43%.

2. Depth and Severity of Poverty

• Poverty Gap Index: Indicates the depth of poverty, showing the total amount needed to bring all poor individuals up to the poverty line.
• Poverty Severity Index: Reflects inequality among the poor. It increased almost double between 1990/91 and 1998/99, suggesting greater inequality in the distribution of income among the poor.
• Cost of Poverty Reduction: The cost of raising the consumption level of every poor person to the upper poverty line was 4.4% of the total cost of transfers equal to the poverty line in 1998/99, compared to 2.7% in 1990/91.

3. Economies of Scale

• Robustness Test: A test was conducted to assess the effect of economies of scale in consumption. A scale parameter of 0.75 was used, implying a relatively small effect of economies of scale.
• Impact on Poverty Risk: Adjusting for economies of scale flattens the poverty/household size curve, reducing the disparity between large and small households.
• Recommendation: Morocco is advised to develop a country-specific equivalence scale to better reflect poverty outcomes.

4. Inequality Changes

• Inequality Trends: The Gini coefficient remained relatively stable at around 39% during the 1990s, with no significant changes at the national level or within urban and rural areas.
• Statistical Tests: The null hypothesis of no change in Gini indices between 1990/91 and 1998/99 was not rejected at the 5% or 1% confidence level.
• Atkinson Indices: These indices, which are more sensitive to changes in the distribution of income among the poor, show an increase in inequality, especially when the inequality aversion parameter is set higher (e.g., ε=4 or ε=5), indicating a worsening of inequality among the poor.

Key Information

• Poverty Lines:
  • 1990/91: 1442 DH (urban and rural)
  • 1998/99: 1962 DH (urban), 1878 DH (rural)
• Poverty Incidence:
  • 1990/91: 13.1% (3.4 million)
  • 1998/99: 19.0% (5.3 million)
• Economic Vulnerability:
  • 1990/91: 6–13 million
  • 1998/99: 8.8–12 million
• Gini Coefficient:
  • 1990/91: 39.3%
  • 1998/99: 39.5%
• Atkinson Indices:
  • For ε=2: 0.3695 (1990/91), 0.3780 (1998/99)
  • For ε=3: 0.4688 (1990/91), 0.4868 (1998/99)
  • For ε=4: 0.5410 (1990/91), 0.5697 (1998/99)
  • For ε=5: 0.5967 (1990/91), 0.6333 (1998/99)

Conclusion

The report highlights that while the overall inequality in Morocco remained stable during the 1990s, inequality among the poor worsened. Poverty remains a significant rural issue, and there is a growing need for more accurate and country-specific methods to measure and monitor poverty effectively.