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Global Energy Storage: Divergence in the EV Battery Market

Core Content

This report from Bernstein's Electric Revolution series analyzes the divergence in the global EV battery market, highlighting the contrasting growth trajectories between China and the West. It explores the market share, sales growth, and investment implications for major battery makers and OEMs in 2025 and beyond.

Main Points

• Market Share Trends:

  • CATL remains the global leader in the EV battery market with a 36% share in 2024, slightly increasing to 36.2% in 3M2025.
  • LGES and Samsung SDI have seen declines in market share, with LGES dropping to 12% and Samsung SDI to 4% in 2024.
  • Chinese battery makers are gaining traction in Europe, with CATL capturing 39% of the market in 2024 and increasing to 44% in 3M2025.

• OEM Exposure:

  • CATL has the most diversified OEM customer base, including Tesla, Geely, Volkswagen, and BMW.
  • LGES is heavily dependent on Tesla and Volkswagen, with exposure to GM.
  • Samsung SDI is reliant on BMW, while SK On is primarily dependent on Hyundai-Kia.
  • SDI also has significant exposure to Rivian and Stellantis.

• Sales Growth Projections:

  • CATL is expected to grow its EV battery sales by 25% in 2025.
  • LGES and Samsung SDI are projected to grow by 15% each.
  • BYD is anticipated to have the fastest battery demand growth at 38%, followed by SK On at 39% and CATL at 23%.

• Regional Performance:

  • China continues to be the largest EV battery market, accounting for 57% of global demand in 2024.
  • Europe is witnessing increased Chinese battery maker presence, with CATL gaining significant market share.
  • US has seen LGES and SK On gain share, while CATL and SDI lose some due to reduced reliance on Tesla and Rivian.

• Investment Implications:

  • CATL is rated as Outperform with a P/E of 15x and 25–30% EPS growth.
  • Tianqi Lithium (both A and H shares) is also rated Outperform due to potential lithium price recovery in 2026.
  • SDI and LG Chem are seen as better value with forward P/E of 10x, while LGES is rated Market-Perform.
  • Posco Future M and EcoPro BM are rated Underperform.

Key Information

Market Share by Region

Sales Growth by Battery Maker

Investment Ratings

Outlook for 2025

• China is expected to maintain rapid EV growth, with major OEMs like BYD and Geely projecting 30–50% sales increases.
• Volkswagen and Hyundai-Kia are guiding to 50% EV sales growth, which will benefit battery makers with exposure.
• Tesla is expected to see a -3% sales growth, which could affect LGES and Panasonic.
• Korean battery makers may see improved growth if the US market expands and China matures, but this depends on tariff policies.

Conclusion

The EV battery market is increasingly divergent, with Chinese manufacturers gaining ground in Europe and the US, while Western companies face headwinds. CATL's diversified customer base and strong growth potential make it a top investment choice, while LGES and Samsung SDI are more exposed to the performance of key OEMs. The future growth of Korean battery makers hinges on the expansion of the US market and the ability to maintain market share against Chinese competition.