2025-05-14-Bernstein-全球储能电动革命分化——哪些电池制造商在电动汽车领域的布局最佳_33页_1mb

Global Energy Storage: Electric Revolution - Market Divergence Analysis

Date: 14 May 2025
Report Title: Electric Revolution: Divergence - Which battery makers have the best EV exposure?

Key Insights

1. Market Divergence:

   • The global EV market is splitting into two segments: rapidly growing in China but slowing in the West due to demand headwinds, policy uncertainty & costs.
   • China continues its leadership with robust EV adoption, while Western markets face deceleration.

2. Battery Market Leadership:

   • CATL maintains a 36% market share globally, the largest, with strong penetration in both China and Europe.
   • In Europe, CATL captured additional share from Volkswagen, Ford, and Hyundai-Kia, increasing its market share from 36% in 2023 to 39% in 2024.
   • LGES saw its share decline from 14% in 2023 to 12% in 2024, losing ground in Europe despite gains in the U.S.
   • BYD, the fastest-growing OEM (36% y-o-y growth), becomes a key CATL customer.

3. Customer Concentration Risk:

   • CATL has a diversified customer base (Tesla, VW, Geely, BMW).
   • LGES is highly dependent on Tesla (41%), VW (17%), and GM (15%).
   • SDI relies heavily on BMW (43%) and faces risks if European OEMs slow down.

4. Regional Market Share Trends:

   • Chinese battery makers are expanding outside China, with CATL gaining significant ground in Europe.
   • U.S. OEMs (VW, GM) are partnering with Korean battery makers (LGES, SK On) for growth in North America.

2025 Outlook

• Fastest Growth: SK On (+39%), BYD (+38%), and CATL (+23%) are expected to lead in battery demand growth.
• Key Risks:
  • Korean battery makers face risks from increased competition in Europe and potential slowdown in Tesla sales.
  • Geely’s expansion into in-house battery supply could challenge CATL.

5. Five-Year Projections:
   • Korean battery makers are expected to grow faster than Chinese peers due to improved U.S. market penetration and maturation of the Chinese market.
   • CATL will benefit from expanding beyond EV batteries into energy storage systems (ESS), trucks, and data centers.

Investment Recommendations

• Outlook ** (CATL, CNY 340 target): Strong growth potential, diversified customer base, and announced HK IPO as catalyst.
• **Outlook ** (Tianqi Lithium): → Potential lithium price recovery in 2026.
• **Outlook ** (LGES): → Market-Perform with a lower price target due to reliance on VW and Tesla.
• Underperform: LG Chem, EcoPro BM, and SK On.

Summary: The global EV battery market is highly competitive, with CATL leading due to its strong European penetration and diverse OEM relationships. Korean and Japanese players face risks from competition and regional slowdowns. Chinese firms are expanding internationally, while Western OEMs cautiously adopt electrification. Key growth sectors for batteries include European BEV adoption and North American expansion.