【Dechert_Mergermarket】2025年全球私募股权展望报告_60页_6mb

2025 Global Private Equity Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2025 Global Private Equity Outlook report by Dechert LLP, in collaboration with Mergermarket, provides an analysis of the current state and future direction of the global private equity (PE) market. It highlights the resilience of the sector despite macroeconomic challenges and geopolitical uncertainties, with a focus on key trends, challenges, and opportunities in 2025.

Main Viewpoints

Market Resilience

• The global PE market showed resilience in 2024, with 6,792 buyout transactions in the first three quarters, a 1% decrease from 2023, but 47% higher in value than 2023.
• In 2024, the total value of buyout deals reached US$703 billion, surpassing pre-pandemic levels and showing signs of recovery.
• The number of megadeals (over US$5 billion) increased significantly in 2024.

Optimism for 2025

• Despite challenges, 68% of respondents believe market conditions for liquidity events will remain unfavorable in the next 12 months, but exit activity has started to improve in Q4.
• 81% of respondents are concerned about increased uncertainty regarding tax policies under a Trump administration.
• 17% of respondents expect to increase the use of GP-led secondaries in the next two years, driven by more lucrative opportunities for GPs.
• 34% of respondents are exploring GP-stake divestitures, with proceeds often used to secure larger commitments for new funds.

Regional Outlook

• North America: Optimistic about 2025, with a 31% belief that a Republican win could boost portfolios. The average net return for 2024 is 16.1%.
• EMEA: Seen as lagging behind North America in recovery, but 60% of respondents believe that more stringent regulation will impact the deal environment.
• Asia-Pacific: Firms are cautious, with 1.5% lower net returns compared to the global average. 60% of firms are launching separate pools of capital for specific geographies or sectors.

Key Trends

Fundraising

• 43% of respondents cited geopolitical issues as the biggest obstacle to fundraising.
• Geopolitical uncertainty remains a significant concern, especially in EMEA and Asia-Pacific, where 38% of firms cite a lack of available capital from institutional investors.
• Democratization of PE is seen as a challenge, with 32% of respondents noting significant impact on fee structuring. However, it can also be a mitigation strategy by broadening the investor base.

Deal Environment

• 61% of respondents believe club deals are very appealing in the current environment.
• 93% of respondents are at least somewhat likely to consider take-private deals in the next 12 months, though very likely responses have dropped from 80% to 44%.
• Buy-and-build strategies are being pursued by 60% of respondents, up from 47% in 2023.

Regulatory and Antitrust Issues

• 21% of respondents feel that more stringent regulation will have a major impact on the deal environment.
• Antitrust regulators are becoming more active, which could have a detrimental effect on deal activity.

Private Credit

• 63% of respondents use private credit to support acquisition financing.
• 59% of global PE firms utilize asset-backed securities (ABS) and other structured products.

Sustainability and ESG

• 100% of respondents are considering or open to investment activity related to sustainability and ESG factors.

Impact of the U.S. Election

• 31% of North American respondents believe a Republican win would be more beneficial for their portfolios than a Democratic one.
• 68% of respondents in EMEA and 60% in Asia-Pacific believe that the election outcome would not significantly affect their investments.
• The report notes that neither side proposed radical changes from the Biden administration, and both are expected to maintain foreign tariffs, infrastructure projects, and deficit spending.

Fund Finance Trends

• 68% of respondents anticipate a decrease in fund finance in 2025, with 24% expecting significant decreases.
• North American firms are particularly concerned about reduced fund finance due to tighter credit conditions and increased regulatory scrutiny.
• 30% of respondents expect fund finance to remain at current levels, especially in Europe.

Conclusion

Despite the challenges, the PE sector is expected to continue its upward trajectory in 2025. The democratization of PE and increased use of co-investment programs are becoming more common. With record levels of dry powder and a more favorable economic outlook, PE firms are optimistic about future performance, though they remain cautious about the impact of geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes.

The report emphasizes the importance of flexibility and innovation in navigating the evolving landscape and highlights the need for strategic adjustments in portfolio and fundraising approaches.