2018年-ECB欧洲央行_ecbspf2018q3_12页_495kb

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters - Third Quarter of 2018 Summary

Core Content Overview

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2018 provides insights into inflation, GDP growth, and unemployment rate expectations for the euro area. The summary highlights the key changes and trends observed in these forecasts compared to the previous survey and other economic indicators.

1. Inflation Expectations

Average Inflation Expectations

• The average HICP inflation expectations for 2018, 2019, and 2020 were 1.7%.
• These expectations were upward revised from the previous survey: +0.2 p.p. for 2018, +0.1 p.p. for 2019, and unchanged for 2020.
• The upward revisions were attributed to higher oil prices, which had already begun to impact the most recent HICP data.

Core Inflation Expectations

• Average HICP inflation excluding food and energy remained unchanged at 1.2% for 2018, 1.5% for 2019, and 1.7% for 2020.
• The increase in core inflation was supported by higher compensation per employee growth, expected to reach 2.3% by 2020.

Probability Distributions

• The probability distribution for inflation shifted rightward, with a decrease in the probability of lower inflation outcomes and an increase for higher inflation outcomes.
• For 2018, 2019, and 2020, the probability of inflation in the 1.0%–1.4% range decreased, while the probability in the 2.0%–2.4% range increased.
• The probability of deflation remained below 1% for all three years.

Longer-Term Inflation Expectations

• The average longer-term inflation expectations (for 2023) remained stable at 1.9%.
• The median point forecast and the mean of the aggregate probability distribution were also unchanged at 1.9% and 1.8%, respectively.
• The balance of risks to longer-term inflation remained to the downside, indicating a continued concern about potential inflationary pressures.

2. Real GDP Growth Expectations

Average GDP Growth Expectations

• Real GDP growth expectations for 2018, 2019, and 2020 were 2.2%, 1.9%, and 1.6%, respectively.
• These expectations were revised downward from the previous survey: -0.2 p.p. for 2018, -0.1 p.p. for 2019, and unchanged for 2020.
• The downward revisions were attributed to weaker-than-expected GDP data in Q1 2018 and increased global uncertainty, particularly due to the US-China trade conflict.

Probability Distributions

• The probability distributions for GDP growth moved towards lower growth outcomes, with larger revisions closer to the forecast horizon.
• For the longer term, the probability assigned to the central range (1.5%–1.9%) remained unchanged, while the probability of outcomes below this range increased from 37% to 40%, and the probability of outcomes above decreased from 32% to 29%.

Risks to GDP Growth

• Risks to GDP growth were seen as being to the downside across all horizons.
• The asymmetry of the probability distributions indicated a skewed balance of risks.
• The main downside risk cited was the escalation of the US-China trade conflict and its global implications.

3. Unemployment Rate Expectations

Average Unemployment Rate Expectations

• The average unemployment rate expectations for 2018, 2019, and 2020 were 8.3%, 7.9%, and 7.6%, respectively.
• The 2018 and 2019 expectations were unchanged from the previous survey, while the 2020 expectation was revised up by 0.1 p.p. to 7.6%.

Longer-Term Unemployment Rate Expectations

• Longer-term unemployment rate expectations were revised up by 0.1 p.p. to 7.5%.
• The balance of risks to the longer-term unemployment rate remained skewed towards higher outcomes.
• The probability of outcomes above 8.0% increased, with some respondents linking this to the downward revision in the balance of risks to growth.

Qualitative Comments

• Respondents noted that the pace of unemployment decline was expected to slow as the rate neared historical lows.
• Skills mismatch and increasing labour supply growth were identified as limiting factors in the decline.
• Some respondents also mentioned that excessive wage increases relative to productivity gains could dampen labour demand.

4. Expectations for Other Variables

USD Oil Prices

• USD oil prices were expected to continue decreasing until 2020, with an average of $74 in 2018, $72 in 2019, and $71 in 2020.
• This implies a 11.8% higher oil price in euros compared to the previous survey, due to weaker USD/EUR exchange rate expectations.

EUR/USD Exchange Rate

• The EUR/USD exchange rate was expected to continue appreciating against the dollar until 2020.
• The expected pace of appreciation increased relative to the lower starting point.

ECB's Main Refinancing Rate

• The ECB's main refinancing rate was expected to remain around 0% in the near term.
• It was projected to increase slightly to 0.14% in 2019 and further to 0.53% in 2020.

Compensation per Employee Growth

• Annual growth in compensation per employee was expected to increase to 2.2% in 2019 and 2020, unchanged from the previous survey.

5. Comparison with Other Surveys

• The SPF results were comparable with other surveys such as the Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, Consensus Economics, and the Euro Zone Barometer.
• For inflation, the SPF results aligned closely with other forecasts, except for the longer-term inflation expectations of the Euro Zone Barometer, which were slightly lower at 1.8%.
• For GDP growth, the SPF expectations were similar to other surveys, with the Euro Zone Barometer showing slightly lower growth expectations for the longer term at 1.3%.
• For unemployment, the SPF expectations were in line with other surveys, with the Euro Zone Barometer projecting a lower longer-term rate at 7.2%.