2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Haiti_Fourth_Review_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_Staff_Report_and_Press_Release_49页_890kb

Summary of Haiti: Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility

Core Content

This document outlines the Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Haiti, conducted by the IMF staff in collaboration with the Haitian government and other departments. It includes the Staff Report, Press Release, and related policy documents such as the Letter of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP), and Technical Memorandum of Understanding (TMU). The report covers the economic context, policy discussions, program performance, and outlook and risks for Haiti's economic recovery and development.

Main Points

Background and Program Implementation

• A new government, led by Prime Minister Lamothe, was formed on May 15, 2012, continuing the reform agenda.
• The political situation remains challenging due to the lack of a parliamentary majority and upcoming elections.
• The external position has improved, with gross international reserves reaching US$2.1 billion (5.5 months of imports) by end-March 2012.
• The program performance has been generally sound, with most structural benchmarks met, except two.
• The final version of the public debt law is ready and expected to be submitted to parliament by mid-August.
• The debt unit is not yet fully operational due to delays in the reorganization of the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF).

Recent Economic Developments

• Economic growth has been weaker than anticipated, particularly in construction due to the political crisis.
• Inflation has decelerated, reaching 5.2 percent in May 2012 from a peak of 10.4 percent in September 2011.
• The fiscal deficit for 2012 is expected to be 3.5 percent of GDP, well below the program target.
• Domestic revenue has performed strongly, while domestically-financed capital spending has been under-executed due to weak capacity and political uncertainty.
• Credit growth to the private sector has increased by 30 percent year-on-year, driven by short-term trade credits.
• Gross international reserves increased by US$0.1 billion in the first semester of 2012, but depreciation of the gourde has occurred against the dollar.

Outlook and Risks

• The 2012 growth target was revised to 4.5 percent, down from 7.8 percent, due to the impact of the political crisis.
• The inflation target for end-FY 2012 is set at 6 percent, based on the continued downward trend in international food and energy prices.
• External account deficits are expected to be slightly higher in 2013 due to increased reconstruction-related imports, but gross official reserves are expected to remain at 5 months of imports.
• The 2013 growth outlook is 6.5 percent, driven by a recovery in reconstruction efforts and acceleration in public investment.
• Key risks include political instability, persistent administrative weaknesses, natural disasters, global economic downturns, and debt vulnerabilities.

Key Policies and Reforms

Fiscal Policy and Reforms

• The 2012 fiscal deficit is expected to be 3.5 percent of GDP, with current spending in line with targets.
• Domestically-financed capital spending is projected to reach 6.4 percent of GDP, and fiscal policy for 2013 will remain supportive of reconstruction.
• Tax and customs reforms are underway, including the adoption of an e-declaration system, strengthening revenue collection, and establishing special tax units for NGOs and SMEs.
• Social spending is being protected and increased, with new poverty reduction initiatives launched in coordination with NGOs.
• The government is committed to reducing corruption and improving public procurement transparency, with plans to cancel unlawful contracts and strengthen supervisory institutions like the Commission Nationale des Marchés Publics (CNMP).

Monetary, Exchange Rate, and Financial Sector Policies

• Price stability remains the central objective of monetary policy.
• The Central Bank of Haiti (BRH) has kept the policy rate neutral since early 2011 and is prepared to adjust it to contain inflation in 2013.
• Financial dollarization and excess liquidity are concerns, as they weaken the monetary transmission mechanism.
• The BRH is committed to exchange rate flexibility and plans to introduce single price foreign exchange auctions.
• Stress testing and improved credit modeling are being pursued to enhance financial sector stability.

Other Structural Reforms

• Project implementation capacity is being strengthened through improved coordination between government agencies and the recruitment of an international consulting firm.
• The transition to a Treasury Single Account (TSA) is progressing, with the first phase focused on closing dormant accounts.
• The new tracking and reporting mechanism (SYSGEP) is being introduced to improve capital spending execution.
• Public procurement reforms are a priority, with the government seeking technical assistance to enhance transparency and efficiency.

Key Information

• SDR 4,914 million will be disbursed upon completion of the fourth review.
• Total disbursed so far is SDR 31,122 million.
• The revised growth target for 2012 is 4.5 percent, with a target inflation rate of 6 percent for end-FY 2012.
• Public debt management is a critical focus, with a new law expected to be submitted by mid-August.
• NGOs play a significant role in economic and social development, but coordination with the government is needed to ensure alignment with national priorities.

Conclusion

The fourth review under the ECF highlights Haiti's progress in economic recovery and reforms, despite political and administrative challenges. The IMF and Haiti's authorities have agreed on a conservative growth outlook for 2012 and a positive outlook for 2013, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic stability, revenue mobilization, and debt sustainability. Continued political commitment and institutional reforms are crucial for long-term recovery and growth.