2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Burundi_Second_Review_Under_the_Extended_Credit_FacilityStaff_Report_Staff_Supplement_Press_Release_on_the_Executive_Board_Discussion_78页_1mb

报告摘要

Burundi: Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Summary

Core Content

The document outlines the Second Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Burundi, conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in early 2013. It includes a staff report, a staff supplement, and a press release on the Executive Board discussion. The review assesses the country's program implementation, economic developments, and policy discussions.

Main Views and Key Information

Program Implementation

The program was implemented under challenging economic conditions.
Real GDP growth slowed from 4.8% to 4.0% in 2012, and inflation dropped from 25.3% to 11.8% due to tighter monetary policy and temporary removal of food taxes.
All quantitative performance criteria for end-September 2012 were met, except for a small miss in the pro-poor spending target.
Structural reforms are progressing, though with some delays, including reforms to revenue mobilization, public financial management (PFM), debt sustainability, and monetary policy.

Outlook and Risks

Economic growth is expected to rise to 4.5% in 2013, and inflation to decline further to about 9%.
Terms of trade are expected to deteriorate further due to declining coffee prices.
External risks include refugee influxes from the conflict in Eastern Congo and reintegration challenges of repatriated refugees from Tanzania.
Debt sustainability remains a concern, with the debt-to-exports ratio expected to breach the policy threshold in the medium term.
Donor support and PFM reforms are critical to avoiding fiscal risks and maintaining donor confidence.

Key Policy Discussions

A. Sustaining Revenue Mobilization

The 2013 budget is in line with the program, but revenues are expected to be lower due to adverse shocks.
Fuel subsidies are unsustainable and have contributed to revenue shortfalls.
Taxes on food products are set to be lifted in mid-2013 as inflation pressures ease.
Legal reforms are being introduced to strengthen the tax system and limit discretionary exemptions.

B. Bolstering Public Financial Management (PFM)

The 2012–14 PFM strategy was adopted, indicating ownership of reforms.
Progress has been made in legal framework modernization, budget preparation, and cash flow management.
Weaknesses remain in expenditure control, budget execution, and treasury management.
Corrective measures include commitment controllers, audits of extra-budgetary spending, and joint treasury and commitment planning.

C. Safeguarding Debt Sustainability

The debt sustainability analysis shows a slight deterioration from the 2011 assessment.
Burundi is classified as "high risk of debt distress".
The debt-to-exports ratio is expected to breach the policy threshold in the medium term.
Legal framework for debt management is needed to govern debt contracting, guarantees, and public-private partnerships (PPPs).
The recent PPP cancellation highlights the need for fiscal risk management.

D. Reining in Inflation and Strengthening Liquidity Management

The monetary stance remains tight until inflation reaches single digits.
Interest rates have risen by 464 basis points since 2011.
Inflation expectations are well anchored, but monetary policy must remain vigilant to prevent second-round effects.
Liquidity and profitability ratios have worsened due to payment delays and financial sector stress.
The central bank is strengthening its prudential oversight and capacity for crisis prevention.

E. Ensuring Soundness of the Financial Sector

Tight liquidity conditions and government payment delays have impacted the financial sector.
Macroprudential indicators have deteriorated, especially due to liquidity constraints and unreliable electricity supply.
The central bank is enhancing its monitoring of loan roll-overs and non-performing loans (NPLs).
A legal framework is being developed to allow swift intervention in troubled banks.

F. Other Macro-Critical Reforms

Coffee sector privatization is advancing, with foreign investment boosting employment and value chain efficiency.
Unreliable electricity remains a major obstacle to coffee processing.
Reforms in business environment have improved rankings in the Doing Business report.
Governance and creditor rights must be strengthened to sustain reforms.
A hydroelectric plant is being built to address energy shortages, though it is insufficient in the short term.

Program Issues and Staff Appraisal

Performance Criteria

Quantitative performance criteria for end-March and end-September 2013 are proposed, including net foreign assets, net domestic assets, and domestic financing.
Indicative targets for domestic arrears, reserve money, and pro-poor spending are also set.
Continuous performance criteria include zero ceilings on new nonconcessional external debt and external payment arrears.

Staff Recommendations

The second review under the ECF should be completed.
SDR 5 million should be disbursed.
The central bank should maintain a tight monetary stance until inflation is controlled.
PFM reforms must be implemented decisively, especially treasury cash flow and expenditure commitments.
A comprehensive debt management strategy and legal framework should be adopted to prevent fiscal risks.
Structural benchmarks and performance criteria for 2013 should be set.

Risks

Fiscal slippage could occur ahead of the 2015 presidential elections.
Governance slippages and slow PFM reforms may disrupt donor support.
Refugee reintegration could increase unemployment and social conflict over land access.

Conclusion

The IMF staff supports the completion of the second review under the ECF, recognizing positive progress in reforms and economic adjustments, while highlighting ongoing risks. Debt sustainability, PFM, and monetary policy remain key priorities, and fiscal discipline is essential to maintain donor confidence and economic stability.