20231009-招银国际-China_Auto_Sector__Sep_discounts_widened_again_4页_547kb

报告摘要

China Auto Sector Discount Analysis Summary

Key Points

Sep 2023 Discount Trend: Dealership discounts for most major automakers widened month-over-month (MoM) in September 2023. This is attributed to continuing price competition, increased competitive product rollouts, and declining raw material costs.
Golden/Silver Months: Despite the widening discounts, investors might focus less on them due to the importance of new model performances and sales results during the "golden September and silver October."

Brand-Specific Insights

Great Wall Motor

Discounts for Great Wall remained stable in September (based on Aug sales), overall Q3 discounts similar to Q2.
Wey Lanshan PHEV: No discount but sales volume fell slightly. Expected discount widening with new Aito M7 launch.
Tank brand: High September wholesale volume at ~18,000 units with low discounts. Haomao and Flash Cat EVs' discounts widening.

Geely

September discounts narrowed slightly; driven by model year 2024 launches for Emgrand L PHEV, Geometry G6 EV, and Geometry E EV.
Galaxy L7 PHEV discounts widened to ~3% in September; Galaxy L6 PHEV had small discounts post-launch.
Overall discounts (7-9%) stable for seven months. Expected stability in the near term.

BYD

September discounts widened; BYD had the lowest discounts among major automakers.
Qin Plus DM, Dolphin EV, and Yuan Plus EV contributed heavily to the wider discounts. BYD benefits from cost advantages.
New Denza N7/N8 discounts flat. Expected widening in Q4 due to heightened competition. BYD's net profit per vehicle projected to widen slightly QoQ.

GAC Group

Discounts widened for both Trumpchi and Aion brands in September.
Aion's discounts widened by ~1ppt, driven by S and V EVs; inventory increases noted (over 50,000 units).
Hyper GT EV deliveries started in September with a RMB 20,000 price cut for one variant.
GAC Toyota & Honda discounts at record highs. Beijing Benz discounts largely stable (EQE, EQE SUV discounts rose, offset by A-Class, E-Class negatives).

BMW Brilliance

Discounts widened to ~20% in September, another all-time high.
New iX1 launched with ~15% discounts. Competition expected to intensify in premium EVs.
New car dealer gross margins likely worse than Q2 (excluding special subsidies).

Mercedes-Benz

Discounts largely stable with mixed model performance: EQE, EQE SUV discounts widened, offset by narrower discounts on A-Class, E-Class, GLB.

Overall Outlook

Discount widening persists due to intense competition from new EV models and NEV transitions. Focus shifts from discounts towards new model impact amid policy changes and market shifts.

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