20250605-招银国际-New_models_to_stabilize_Chinese_OEMs__discounts_6页_821kb

报告摘要

Auto Sector Update: Price Discounts and New Model Impact

Key Findings

Industry Average: In May 2025, the overall industry average discount widened by 0.7 percentage points month-over-month (YoM) to about 15%, primarily driven by German brands (VW, Mercedes-Benz, BMW). This upward trend partially reversed in June according to subsequent analysis, though discoun
widening is expected to moderate.
New Model Effect on Chinese OEMs: Major Chinese brands maintained relatively stable average discounts in May, largely due to the introduction of new models with lower discounting. BYD's discount increase was muted (+~1.5pp YoM) despite a promotional event in late May. New EV startups (Li Auto, Xpeng, NIO, Leapmotor) generally saw discounts narrow (except NIO) as new models contributed to sales; however, competition persists, particularly for Li Auto whose discount margin remains low (c.4.5%) despite model improvements.
Coming Changes: Discounts are expected to rise month-over-month for most major brands in June, supported by residual volume from May sales. The acceleration of new model introductions is anticipated to slow the pace of discounts widening in the third quarter.

Analyst Commentary on Key Players

比亚迪 (BYD):
- Average discounts rose by 1.9pp YoM to 8.2% in May.
- A significant "618" promotion was announced mid-May.
- BYD likely faced excess inventory (~700k units).
- Expected to continue price promotions throughout H2 2025 to meet its 5.5 million unit target.
- Estimated marginal impact on Q2 gross margin: ~1ppt.
长城汽车 (GAC Group):
- GAC Trumpchi: Slight discount narrowing YoM.
- GAC Aion: Stable discount, linked to sales volume.
- GAC Toyota (including Aion): Discounts rose moderately YoM (to 18%) driven by Camry price cuts (no discount available for Aion bz3X).
- GAC Honda: Discounts rose YoM (to 21.7%) mainly on Accord, although first four months 2025 volume dropped 27% YoY.
BMW & Mercedes-Benz: Both luxury brands faced significant challenges.
- BMW Brilliance: Record high discount level (34%) increased YoM, driven by the LWB X3.
- Beijing Benz Mercedes: Record peak discounts (31.1%) widened YoM faster than BMW, indicated poor new model pipeline. Negative estimated impact on new-car GPM (including ancillary fees).