20180716-法国巴黎银行-Sales_and_Trading_Market_Commentary__CEEMEA_Credit_Update_9页_294kb
报告摘要
CEEMEA Credit Update Summary – 16 July 2018
Core Content Overview
This document provides a market update on credit and macroeconomic developments in the CEEMEA (Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe) region, focusing on trade tensions, commodity price movements, and EM credit performance. It also includes details on upcoming data releases and events that may impact market sentiment.
Main Points
Global Trade Tensions and Market Reaction
- Trade Tensions: The US is considering new tariffs on $200bn in Chinese imports, likely to be effective in October. The market has already priced in these risks.
- China's Response: China's proactive measures to support growth and currency have eased some market concerns.
- GDP Outlook: China's Q2 GDP growth is expected to decelerate slightly to 6.7% yoy from 6.8% in Q1.
- Fed's Role: The Fed Chair's assessment of trade tariffs' impact on the US economy will be a key focus, with limited room for further hawkish surprises.
Commodity Market Trends
- Commodities: The market has repriced down significantly, with industrial metals (copper, nickel, zinc) leading the decline.
- Copper: Fell 17% since its peak, raising concerns about global economic activity and demand.
- Oil: Brent crude dropped 4-5% due to a potential release of oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and increased Libyan production.
- QE Impact: Global QE flows are expected to fall by 20% yoy from $107bn to $85.7bn in December and 35% from the recent peak in May.
- Supply Constraints: OPEC+ has limited spare capacity, making supply disruptions from Venezuela and Iran supportive for prices.
CEEMEA Market Focus
- Key Events: The summit between Trump and Putin is a focal point for geopolitical and oil price implications.
- South Africa: June CPI and rates decision will be closely watched, with BNP Paribas economists expecting a 40bp rise in inflation to 4.8% yoy.
- Turkey: Turkish assets faced significant sell-off pressures, with TRY depreciating by 6% and CDS spreads widening by 40bp. Senior Financials widened by ~90bp, and Subordinated issues by 200bp, hitting historical highs.
- Credit Outlook: Despite the sell-off, the author retains a positive view on Turkish banks and corporates, suggesting current fundamentals may warrant better pricing.
EM Credit Performance
- EM Credit: Performed well last week, with EMBIG tightening by 5bp.
- EM FX: Resilient, with the $BBDXY index rising by almost 1ppt.
- New Issuance: Global EM issuance dropped to $4.3bn last week, well below historical averages.
- Fund Flows: Positive inflows of $0.9bn, with hard currency funds showing +$0.6bn and local currency funds +$0.3bn, marking the first inflow since mid-April.
Key Data and Tables
EM Credit Spread Summary (13-Jul)
| Instrument | 13-Jul | 1w Δ | 1m Δ | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Spread* | 365 | -9 | -10 | 54 |
| BBG EM $ Aggregate (10Y; BBB/BBB-) | 289 | -7 | 5 | 63 |
| BBG EM $ Aggregate IG (9.5Y; A-/BBB+) | 160 | -6 | -7 | 26 |
| BBG EM $ Aggregate HY (9Y; BB-/B+) | 500 | -11 | 23 | 139 |
| BBG EM $ Sovs (12Y; BBB-/BB+) | 331 | -8 | -2 | 76 |
| BBG EM $ Corps (6.5Y; BBB-/BB+) | 322 | -10 | 19 | 88 |
| US IG Industrials (7Y; BBB-) | 138 | 0 | 9 | 27 |
| UST 10Y | 2.83 | 1 | -14 | 42 |
Sovereign Z Spread Changes (1W)
| Region | 1W Δ | 1W Outperformers | 1W Underperformers |
|---|---|---|---|
| CEE | -7 | Lebanon (-76) | Gabon (22) |
| CIS (ex-Russia) | -18 | Iraq (-39) | Zambia (12) |
| GCC | -5 | Nigeria (-28) | Cameroon (10) |
| MENA (ex-GCC) | -48 | Jordan (-23) | Bahrain (6) |
| Russia | -19 | Ivory Coast (-21) | Slovakia (2) |
| South Africa | -7 | Georgia (-21) | Poland (-1) |
| SSA | -9 | Ethiopia (-20) | Namibia (-2) |
| Turkey | -12 | Russia (-19) | Abu Dhabi (-2) |
EM Global Issuance by Week
| Week # | Global | Asia | CEEMEA | LATAM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 6,293 | 2,971 | 2,726 | 595 |
| 22 | 3,185 | 3,185 | - | - |
| 23 | 9,869 | 4,483 | 3,808 | 1,578 |
| 24 | 1,492 | 1,492 | - | - |
| 25 | 2,250 | 1,444 | 460 | 346 |
| 26 | 1,894 | 1,894 | - | - |
| 27 | 1,822 | 1,477 | 345 | - |
| 28 | 4,355 | 3,055 | - | 1,300 |
| Total Issuance ytd | 320,809 | 143,025 | 118,320 | 59,464 |
| Net Issuance ytd | 147,561 | 81,994 | 41,602 | 23,965 |
Upcoming Data Releases and Events
- Monday: Turkey Unemployment, Poland CPI
- Tuesday: US and Turkey IP, Mr Powell's semi-annual testimony, gas talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the EU
- Wednesday: South Africa and Russia CPI, FED Beige Book
- Thursday: South Africa rates decision
- Friday: Rating reviews for Czech Republic, Kuwait, and Russia
- Other: Corporate results throughout the week
Legal Disclaimer
This document is a marketing communication and not a research report. It is intended for professional clients and eligible counterparties. It does not constitute investment advice and may not be suitable for all investors. The views expressed may differ from those of the BNPP Research Department. BNPP may trade in the instruments discussed and is not liable for any losses arising from reliance on this material.
Conclusion
The CEEMEA credit market remains influenced by global trade dynamics, commodity price fluctuations, and regional economic indicators. While the market has adjusted to trade risks, the impact of potential SPR releases and the ongoing QE drawdowns could affect liquidity and yields from September. Turkey's credit market has been hit hard by political uncertainty, but the author maintains a constructive outlook on Turkish banks and corporates.
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