20180115-法国巴黎银行-CEEMEA_2018__Credit_rating_outlook_9页_263kb

Summary of EM Strategy Desknote: CEEMEA 2018 Credit Rating Outlook

Core Content

This document outlines the credit rating outlook for CEEMEA (Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Eastern Europe) countries in 2018, based on analysis by BNP Paribas' strategy teams. It highlights the continued trend of more downgrades than upgrades, with specific focus on South Africa, Oman, and potential upgrades in Russia and Eastern Europe.

Main Views

2017 Overview

• Downgrades dominated: 28 downgrades across 15 countries compared to 9 upgrades across 5 countries.
• GCC countries were heavily affected: Bahrain, Oman, Sharjah (UAE), Qatar, and Saudi Arabia all saw downgrades, with Oman being downgraded to junk by S&P.
• South Africa and Turkey: South Africa faced multiple downgrades due to fiscal mismanagement and low growth, while Turkey was downgraded to junk by Fitch.

2018 Outlook

• Downgrades expected: The trend of more downgrades than upgrades is likely to continue in 2018.
• Countries at risk of downgrade:
  • South Africa (Moody's and S&P)
  • Oman (Moody's, Fitch, and S&P)
  • Others: Angola, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Congo, Gabon, Kenya, Macedonia, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Zambia
• Upgrades expected:
  • Russia (S&P and potentially Moody's)
  • Eastern European countries due to robust growth and declining debt-to-GDP ratios
  • Egypt due to ongoing reform efforts

Key Information

Rating Changes in 2017

Rating Outlook for 2018

Key Factors Influencing Ratings

• South Africa: Continued fiscal slippage and low growth are expected to lead to further downgrades.
• Oman: Slow fiscal adjustments and delayed VAT hike may lead to a downgrade to junk.
• Russia: Improved oil prices and fiscal position could lead to an upgrade to investment grade (IG) by S&P, which would make it eligible for IG benchmark indices.
• Eastern Europe: Strong economic growth and declining debt-to-GDP ratios suggest potential upgrades.
• Egypt: Reform efforts are expected to lead to an upgrade.

Additional Notes

• Rating Reviews Calendar: A calendar of scheduled rating reviews for CEEMEA countries is included in the original EM Strategy Plus publication.
• Legal and Risk Disclosures: The document is a non-independent marketing communication and may involve conflicts of interest. It is not investment research and should not be relied upon for making investment decisions.
• Contact Information: The document is produced by BNP Paribas London Branch, and contact details for relevant strategy contacts are provided.

Conclusion

The CEEMEA region is expected to see more downgrades than upgrades in 2018, with South Africa and Oman as primary concerns. Russia and Eastern European countries are likely candidates for upgrades, driven by economic resilience and fiscal improvements. The report also includes important legal and risk disclosures, emphasizing that the information is for professional clients and not intended for general public use.