货币政策报告（英）-美联储理事会-2021.7.9-75页_1mb

Monetary Policy Report Summary (July 9, 2021)

Core Content

This report outlines the Federal Reserve's monetary policy strategy and recent economic and financial developments as of July 2021. It emphasizes the Fed's commitment to its statutory mandate of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.

Main Points

1. Monetary Policy Goals and Strategy

• The FOMC is committed to fulfilling its mandate of maximum employment, price stability, and moderate long-term interest rates.
• The 2 percent inflation target, measured by the annual change in the PCE price index, is the FOMC's longer-run inflation goal.
• The effective lower bound of interest rates has become a more frequent constraint due to the decline in the federal funds rate level relative to historical averages.
• The FOMC will use its full range of tools, including forward guidance, asset purchases, and interest rate adjustments, to achieve its goals.
• The FOMC plans to review its policy strategy annually and conduct a comprehensive review every five years.

2. Recent Economic Developments (2021 H1)

• Labor Market Recovery: The labor market improved significantly, with 3.2 million jobs added in the first half of 2021. However, employment remains below pre-pandemic levels, and the unemployment rate dropped to 5.9% in June from 6.7% in December.
• Uneven Labor Force Participation: The labor force participation rate (LFPR) has not fully recovered, especially among non-college-educated individuals, older workers, and Hispanics and Latinos.
• Inflation Trends: Consumer price inflation rose to 3.9% in May, driven by supply chain bottlenecks, increased demand, and base effects from the pandemic. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) was 3.4%, up from 1.4% in the previous year.
• Economic Activity: Real GDP grew 6.4% in the first quarter, fueled by strong consumer spending and business investment, but was restrained by inventory drawdowns. Second-quarter data suggest continued robust demand.

3. Financial Conditions

• Equity prices and longer-term Treasury yields rose since mid-February due to improved economic outlook and vaccine rollouts.
• Mortgage rates remain near historical lows.
• Financial conditions for businesses and households have eased further, with market-based lending and bank lending remaining accommodative.
• Small businesses and low-credit-score households still face tighter financing conditions.

4. Financial Stability

• Core financial institutions remain resilient, but some vulnerabilities persist, especially in money market funds and mutual funds.
• Business and household debt has declined, though business-sector debt remains high relative to income.
• Asset valuations have generally risen due to improving fundamentals and increased investor appetite.

5. International Developments

• Foreign GDP growth has moderated due to tightened public health restrictions, but many economies have shown greater resilience than in previous months.
• Inflation has increased in many foreign economies, as commodity prices and demand have risen.
• Monetary and fiscal policies remain supportive, but some central banks are signaling less accommodative stances.
• Foreign exchange rates have remained relatively stable, with the dollar showing little net change since the start of the year.

6. Monetary Policy Actions

• The FOMC has kept the target federal funds rate near zero.
• Asset purchases continue at a pace of $80 billion per month in Treasury securities and $40 billion per month in mortgage-backed securities.
• The FOMC will maintain the current rate until inflation reaches 2% and labor market conditions are consistent with its maximum employment goal.

Key Information

• The FOMC's strategy is based on anchoring inflation expectations at 2% to ensure price stability and effective monetary policy.
• Supply chain bottlenecks have contributed to upward inflationary pressures, especially in goods sectors.
• The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has expanded significantly, with reserves and reverse repurchase agreements playing a key role.
• The FOMC is prepared to adjust its policy stance in response to emerging risks to its goals.
• Inflation expectations have risen, reflecting confidence in the return to normal levels after the pandemic's base effects.
• Monetary policy rules have been important in guiding the Fed's actions, especially given the effective lower bound on interest rates.

Summary of Economic Projections

• The FOMC expects inflation to decline as supply and demand move closer to balance.
• Employment is projected to recover gradually, though at a slow pace due to labor market disruptions.
• Financial stability remains a concern for specific sectors, but core institutions are resilient.

Special Topics

• Uneven recovery in labor participation: Factors like retirements, caregiving responsibilities, and fear of infection have contributed to the slow return of workers to the labor force.
• Supply chain bottlenecks: These have delayed production and increased prices, particularly in manufacturing and trade.
• Inflation expectations: These have risen but are expected to return to normal as the pandemic's effects fade.
• Monetary policy rules: These have guided the Fed's decisions, especially when interest rates are constrained.
• Balance sheet developments: The Fed's liabilities have changed significantly due to reserves, reverse repurchase agreements, and Treasury purchases.

Conclusion

The FOMC continues to support the economic recovery through low interest rates and quantitative easing, while carefully monitoring inflation, employment, and financial stability. The strategy is flexible, with regular reviews and adjustments based on economic data and risk assessments.