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Summary of Citi Research: China Auto Manufacturers (04 August 2025)

Citi's Key Takeaways

According to an industry expert call with Mr. Sun Shaojun, July orders for China's auto sector were weak due to customer uncertainty around the end of replacement subsidies and reduced price discounts. Mr. Sun anticipates a slight monthly order recovery in August, driven by seasonal factors, and significant growth in September due to the Chengdu Auto Show (29 Aug–7 Sep) and further price promotions.

Order Trends by Brand

• Li Auto: July orders at 31k units, with i8 orders facing lower conversion rates and higher entry prices compared to the L90.
• Nio (excluding Onvo & Firefly): Orders declined slightly in July but saw a small week-on-week increase in August attributed to L90-relatedFootnote 1 customer traffic boost.
• Xpeng: July orders reached 50k units, with steady weekly intake for the G7 model.
• Huawei Harmony (AITO): Orders fell in July, with anticipation for new model launches to drive capacity.
• Zeekr: Orders decreased in July but remain focused on competitive models like the AITO M8.
• BYD: Orders recovered in late July following price discounts; inventory is now below 2 months.
• Denza: Orders remain low, with 70% from the D9 model.
• GAC BEV: Orders declined in July due to market challenges.
• Xiaomi: Massive drop in July orders, rebounding slightly in early August.

BYD Inventory Update

BYD's inventory has significantly decreased to below 2 months, reflecting efforts to clear stock through dealer incentives, though dealer capacity remains polarized.

Market Outlook

The BEV segment is expected to outpace PHEV/EREV growth due to advanced EV range and competitive pricing. Upcoming events like the Chengdu Auto Show could accelerate order growth, but EV brands face increased competition and promotional pressures.

Footnote 1: Nio's August 1st week order growth linked to L90 influence, as per Citi Research data.