Incrementum-月度黄金指南针——2025年4月（英）_82页_3mb

In Gold We Trust Report 2025 Summary

1. Gold

• Alan Greenspan states gold as a primary global currency, alongside silver, without counterparty dependency.
• Gold performance varies by currency, with strong gains in emerging markets like China and India in 2025 YTD.
• Long-term charts show gold's resilience during recessions, with average annual returns of 9.9% since 2000.
• Correlation with other assets is low, making gold a hedge against inflation and currency risk.

2. Silver

• Trading silver is a challenging profession, as per Rich Ross.
• Silver underperforms gold historically, with a CAGR of 7.6% compared to gold's 9.9%.
• Silver shows high correlation with US economic cycles and benefits from inflationary environments.

3. Miner

• Miners generate significant profits during market downturns, as noted by Shelby Cullom Davis.
• Gold miners (e.g., HUI, GDX) outperform the broader market in recession phases.
• 2025 YTD data shows gold miners returning an average of 19.0%.

4. Macro

• Jerome Powell highlights the fragmented understanding of inflation.
• Inflation is rising globally, with emerging markets showing higher growth rates (e.g., Turkey, India).
• Commodities and stocks exhibit strong performance during stagflation, with gold and silver acting as safe havens.

5. Long Term Charts

• Gold outperforms US stocks (Wilshire 5000) over the long term, providing diversification benefits.
• Bitcoin shows high volatility but potential for long-term gains.
• Historical data suggests gold as a strategic asset during deflationary recessions.

6. Proprietary Models

• Incrementum's recession model identifies distinct phases (1-5), with gold performing best in Phase 2-3 for diversification.
• Probabilistic gold price projections suggest a peak of $4,821 by 2030 under current economic conditions.
• Models emphasize gold's role in inflation protection and portfolio balancing.

Addendum

• Premium partners include Agnico Eagle, Endeavour Silver, and Elementum, supporting gold and silver investments.
• Upcoming events and publications provide further insights.

Disclaimer: Data may be incorrect; analysis provided for informational purposes.