Incrementum-月度黄金指南针——2025年1月（英）_81页_3mb

In Gold We Trust Report Summary

1. Gold

• Key Insights:

  1. Gold is viewed as a global currency and inflation hedge, with limited counterparty risk.
  2. Historical Performance:
     • Annualized volatility in USD: +24.4% (2004–2024).
     • Strong long-term trend (10-year rolling CAGR: 18.98%).
     • In recessions, gold often outperforms stocks and bonds (median annualized return in recession: -9.0%).
  3. Currency Effects: Gold generally depreciates against weaker currencies (e.g., Yuan, Lira) but outperforms during all-time highs in weaker currencies.

• Price Context:

  • Spot Price: ~$2,624 (US Dollar, 2024).
  • Projection: Gold price is expected to reach ~$4,800 USD by 2030 due to global inflation, debt burdens, and financial repression.

2. Silver

• Key Insights:

  1. Silver is denser than gold, less easily divisible, and has energy and tech applications.
  2. Performance:
     • Ideal for strategic investors (6.36 oz per U.S. Treasuries phase 3).
     • In recessions, silver performance aligns with gold (similarity score: 0.8).
  3. Inflation Hedge: Silver outperforms gold during deflation cycles (e.g., 1999–2002), but lagged during the 2008 crisis.

• Price Context:

  • Spot Price: ~$28.87 (US Dollar, 2024).

3. Miners (HUI, GDXJ)

• Key Insights:
  1. Miners act as inflation hedges and diversify gold/currency risks.
  2. Commodity Exposure: Miners have low correlation to gold (+8%) due to payout structures (Phases 1–2, Phases 4–5).
  3. Recession Strategy: Phases 1, 2 offer clear excess returns in miners during recessions.

4. Macro

• Key Insights:

  1. Debt & Inflation: Global debt soars (USD: ~$100T, 2024), tipping into dangerous financial repression.
  2. Inflation Indicators: Core CPI (-0.3%), Core PCE (2.4%), CPI (2.8%) in USA.
  3. Buffett Indicator: US stock markets overvalued relative to GDP (Wilshire 5,000 Index at ~355% of US GDP).

• Bond Yields:

  • Federal Funds: Below zero (⅓ price range below phase 5).
  • US Curve: Flatting after steepening, bond yields inverted.
  • US 10-2Y Spread: (4.41%, bearing deflation risk signals).

  Conclusion: Macro conditions warrant gold-heavy positions for inflation/financial repression preparedness (Bear Market scenario for other assets).

5. Long Term Charts

• Market Capitalization:

  • Gold: ~$17T (2024).
  • US Stocks (Wilshire 5,000): ~30% below peak (2000), despite moderate growth.
  • Bitcoin: Haven value vs Gold determined by financial repression.

• Bubbles: Despite previous tech/commodity bubbles (Dot-Com, Chinese Real Estate), gold still holds as risk premium asset.

6. Proprietary Models

• Inflation Signal (Incrementum):

  • The 2-step HUI/Gold ratio shows Phases 1 (Divergence), Phase 2 (Accumulation) at >0%.
  • Gold performance in recessions: Phases 1–2 are critical for investors to reverse existing risk exposures.

• Recession Phases (2008–Phase 5):

  • Gold dominates during high-risk environments (Phase 3/4 reported ≈0.9% monthly excess returns).

Key Recommendations

• Strategic Allocation: Inflation-focused universes (gold, miners, silver) advantageous compared to fiat currency risk premiums.
• Tactical Positioning:
  • Phase Phased Approach: Use miner proxies (HUI) in Phases 1–2, switch to gold in Phases 3–5.
  • Rotation Strategy: Assets (commodities/bonds) yield negative value in financial repression.

Conclusion: With unprecedented global debt and financial repression, gold is seen as the most persistent asset to hold long-term.