2025-02-16-Incrementum-黄金指南针月报——2025年2月（英）_82页_2mb

Monthly Gold Compass Summary - February 2025

Core Content

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the performance of gold and silver across various currencies and time frames, including annualized returns, correlations, and historical trends. It is authored by Ronald-Peter Stöferle and Mark J. Valek, and features insights from several mining and investment companies.

Key Information

Gold

• Gold as a Currency: Alan Greenspan highlights that gold is considered the primary global currency, alongside silver, and does not require a counterparty signature.
• Performance in Major Currencies (2000–2025 YTD): Gold has shown varying performance across currencies. In 2025 YTD, it has returned 6.8% in USD, with an overall CAGR of 9.9%.
• Annualized Performance (if Bought on the Last Day of the Month and Held until 01/31/2025): Gold has had positive returns in most years, with the highest in 2024 at 27.2% in USD.
• Correlation Analysis (01/31/2025): Gold has a negative correlation with the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index), while it is positively correlated with the GDX (Gold Miners Index) and the CRB TR (Commodity Research Bureau Index). It has a weak positive correlation with the S&P 500 and Bitcoin.
• Gold ETF Flows: Monthly ETF flows for gold by region are reported, indicating investment trends in different markets.
• Historical Price Trends: The report includes long-term price trends of gold in USD and other currencies, showing its performance from 1970 to 2025.

Silver

• Silver as an Investment: Rich Ross notes that trading silver is a tough way to make an easy living, suggesting it is not as straightforward as gold.
• Performance in Major Currencies (2000–2025 YTD): Silver has shown more volatility, with a 2025 YTD return of 8.4% in USD, and a CAGR of 7.6%.
• Annualized Performance (if Bought on the Last Day of the Month and Held until 01/31/2025): Silver has had mixed returns, with a peak in 2023 at 14.93% in USD.
• Correlation Analysis (01/31/2025): Silver has a negative correlation with the DXY and a positive correlation with the SIL (Silver Miners Index) and CRB TR. It has a weak positive correlation with Bitcoin.
• Silver ETF Flows: Similar to gold, the report includes monthly ETF flows for silver by region, highlighting investment trends.
• Historical Price Trends: The report provides long-term price trends of silver in USD and other currencies, showing its performance from 1970 to 2025.

Main Views

• Gold's Stability: Gold is seen as a stable store of value and a primary global currency, with consistent performance across various time periods.
• Silver's Volatility: Silver is more volatile compared to gold, with significant fluctuations in returns and a higher correlation with market indices like the S&P 500.
• Investor Behavior: The report reflects investor behavior through ETF flows, indicating trends in demand for gold and silver across different regions.
• Market Correlations: Both gold and silver have notable correlations with various financial indicators, such as the DXY, S&P 500, VIX, and CRB TR, which can inform investment strategies.

Key Figures and Trends

• Gold Performance (2025 YTD): 6.8% in USD.
• Silver Performance (2025 YTD): 8.4% in USD.
• Gold CAGR (2000–2025): 9.9%.
• Silver CAGR (2000–2025): 7.6%.
• Gold ETF Flows (2004–2024): Vary by region, indicating diverse investment interest.
• Silver ETF Flows (2004–2024): Also vary by region, showing similar trends in investment behavior.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of gold and silver in the global financial system, highlighting their roles as currencies and investment assets. It provides a comprehensive overview of their performance, correlations, and historical data, which can be used to make informed investment decisions.