Incrementum-月度黄金指南针-2025年8月（英）_77页_3mb

报告摘要

Monthly Gold Compass - August 2025 Summary

Core Content

This document provides an in-depth analysis of the performance of gold and silver, along with mining stocks, from 2000 to 2025. It includes historical returns, correlations with various financial indicators, and insights from notable figures in the field.

Key Information

Gold

Performance Overview:
- 2000-2025 YTD: 1,044.4% (USD), 910.4% (EUR), 1,296.7% (GBP), 1,064.1% (AUD), 996.6% (CAD), 895.2% (CNY), 1,587.7% (JPY), 484.5% (CHF), 2,202.0% (INR)
- CAGR (Annualized Growth Rate): 10.0% (USD), 9.5% (EUR), 10.9% (GBP), 10.1% (AUD), 9.8% (CAD), 9.4% (CNY), 11.7% (JPY), 7.1% (CHF), 13.0% (INR)
- Positive Years: 73.1% (USD), 80.8% (EUR), 84.6% (GBP), 88.5% (AUD), 80.8% (CAD), 80.8% (CNY), 84.6% (JPY), 73.1% (CHF), 88.5% (INR)
- Average Annual Return (YTD): 20.4%
Monthly Performance (2000-2025):
- Each month's return is listed, with the highest in 2023 (27.2%) and lowest in 2000 (10.10%).
Correlation Table (07/31/2025):
- Gold and DXY: Negative correlation ranging from -0.66 to -0.46
- Gold and GDX: Positive correlation of 0.78 to 0.82
- Gold and S&P 500: Negative correlation from -0.28 to -0.04
- Gold and CRB TR: Positive correlation from 0.07 to 0.34
- Gold and WTI: Positive correlation from 0.08 to 0.20
- Gold and Bitcoin: Positive correlation from 0.24 to 0.46
Key Dates:
- 52 Week High: 1/3/2025
- 52 Week Low: 5/29/2025
- % Time (+): 2%
- % Time (-): 98%
90 Day Correlation:
- Gold and DXY: Negative correlation from -0.64 to -0.09
- Gold and GDX: Positive correlation of 0.84
- Gold and S&P 500: Positive correlation from 0.05 to 0.35
- Gold and CRB TR: Positive correlation from 0.26 to 0.34
- Gold and WTI: Positive correlation from 0.20 to 0.23
- Gold and Bitcoin: Negative correlation from -0.04 to -0.01
Graphical Representation:
- Gold (log): Chart from 01/1970 to 07/2025
- Gold and New ATH: Chart from 01/1970 to 07/2025
- Gold and IWGP: Chart from 08/2015 to 07/2025
- Gold (Nominal) and CPI Adjusted: Chart from 01/1970 to 06/2025
- Gold in Major Currencies: Charts for 2025 YTD and below all-time high
- Gold in Emerging Market Currencies: Charts for 2025 YTD and below all-time high
- Various Currencies in Gold (log): Chart from 08/1971 to 07/2025
- Accumulated Gold ETF Holdings by Region: Data from 01/2004 to 06/2025
- Monthly Gold ETF Flows by Region: Data from 01/2004 to 06/2025
- COMEX Gold Deliveries: Data from 01/2007 to 07/2025
- LBMA London Vault Gold Holdings: Data from 01/2017 to 06/2025

Silver

Performance Overview:
- 2000-2025 YTD: 580.4% (USD), 500.8% (EUR), 730.4% (GBP), 592.1% (AUD), 552.0% (CAD), 491.7% (CNY), 903.4% (JPY), 247.5% (CHF), 1,268.7% (INR)
- CAGR (Annualized Growth Rate): 7.8% (USD), 7.3% (EUR), 8.6% (GBP), 7.9% (AUD), 7.6% (CAD), 7.2% (CNY), 9.4% (JPY), 5.0% (CHF), 10.8% (INR)
- Positive Years: 65.4% (USD), 57.7% (EUR), 61.5% (GBP), 57.7% (AUD), 61.5% (CAD), 65.4% (CNY), 65.4% (JPY), 61.5% (CHF), 65.4% (INR)
- Average Annual Return (YTD): 22.2%
Monthly Performance (2000-2025):
- Each month's return is listed, with the highest in 2023 (31.75%) and lowest in 2000 (7.94%).
Correlation Table (07/31/2025):
- Silver and DXY: Negative correlation ranging from -0.49 to -0.25
- Silver and SIL: Positive correlation of 0.79 to 0.75
- Silver and S&P 500: Positive correlation from -0.04 to 0.52
- Silver and CRB TR: Positive correlation from 0.49 to 0.32
- Silver and WTI: Positive correlation from 0.31 to 0.28
- Silver and Bitcoin: Positive correlation from 0.54 to 0.51
Key Dates:
- 52 Week High: 7/18/2025
- 52 Week Low: 11/21/2024
- % Time (+): 5%
- % Time (-): 95%
90 Day Correlation:
- Silver and DXY: Negative correlation from -0.09 to -0.05
- Silver and SIL: Positive correlation of 0.84
- Silver and S&P 500: Positive correlation from 0.58 to 0.58
- Silver and CRB TR: Positive correlation from 0.60 to 0.42
- Silver and WTI: Positive correlation from 0.42 to 0.32
- Silver and Bitcoin: Positive correlation from 0.32 to 0.24
Graphical Representation:
- Silver (log): Chart from 01/1970 to 07/2025
- Silver and New ATH: Chart from 01/1970 to 07/2025
- Silver and IWSP: Chart from 08/2015 to 07/2025
- Silver (Nominal) and CPI Adjusted: Chart from 01/1970 to 06/2025
- Silver in Major Currencies: Charts for 2025 YTD and below all-time high
- Silver in Emerging Market Currencies: Charts for 2025 YTD and below all-time high
- COMEX Silver Deliveries: Data from 01/2007 to 07/2025
- LBMA London Vault Silver Holdings: Data from 01/2017 to 06/2025

Mining Stocks

Quote: "Prospecting for gold is like looking for true love: for every nugget there’s a ton of rock and dirt." – Lord Richard Head
Monthly Performance (08/2023–07/2025):
- Gold: -1.24% (Aug-23), -4.71% (Sep-23), 7.27% (Oct-23), 2.68% (Nov-23), 1.32% (Dec-23)
- HUI: -6.06% (Aug-23), -9.06% (Sep-23), 5.19% (Oct-23), 10.88% (Nov-23), 0.88% (Dec-23)
- GDX: -6.84% (Aug-23), -8.03% (Sep-23), 4.09% (Oct-23), 11.82% (Nov-23), -0.99% (Dec-23)
- GDXJ: -7.36% (Aug-23), -10.45% (Sep-23), 3.44% (Oct-23), 15.57% (Nov-23), -1.61% (Dec-23)
- Silver: -4.43% (Aug-23), -9.31% (Sep-23), 3.34% (Oct-23), 10.26% (Nov-23), -5.90% (Dec-23)
- SIL: -1.35% (Aug-23), -9.81% (Sep-23), 0.54% (Oct-23), 15.31% (Nov-23), 2.38% (Dec-23)
- SILJ: -7.36% (Aug-23), -11.30% (Sep-23), -0.59% (Oct-23), 16.13% (Nov-23), 2.15% (Dec-23)
Performance of Silver Relative to Gold (Monthly):
- The performance of silver relative to gold is illustrated through a chart from 08/2015 to 07/2025.
Gold/Silver Ratio:
- Chart from 08/2015 to 07/2025, indicating the ratio of gold to silver prices over time.

Main Points

Gold and silver have shown significant performance over the past decades, with gold generally outperforming silver.
The performance of gold and silver varies across different currencies, with some showing higher returns and others lower.
The correlation of gold and silver with various financial indicators like DXY, GDX, S&P 500, CRB TR, WTI, and Bitcoin is analyzed.
Mining stocks, such as HUI, GDX, GDXJ, SIL, and SILJ, have had mixed performance over the period, with some months showing positive returns and others negative.
The document includes a variety of charts and graphs to visualize the trends and correlations of gold and silver over time.

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