2025-01-19-Incrementum-月度黄金指南针——2025年1月（英）_82页_2mb

Monthly Gold Compass - January 2025

Authors: Ronald-Peter Stöferle, Mark J. Valek

Gold

• Role as Currency: Gold is viewed as a global currency due to its non-counterparty nature, alongside silver.
• Performance:
  • Annualized performance (1-year hold period) in USD: 24.4% (Jan 2024–Dec 2024).
  • Long-term (time-weighted): 24.4% CAGR since 2004.
  • Monthly chart shows volatility, with peaks and troughs influenced by macro trends.

Silver

• Comparable Performance: 9.5% annualized in USD.
• Ratio: Silver-to-gold ratio fluctuates, typically around 60–80 in 2024.
• Miners: Stocks (e.g., HUI, SIL) underperform gold in some periods, but show strong gains during inflationary stresses.

Miners

• Bear Market Profits: Historically, miners generate significant returns during economic downturns.
• ETF Flows: Institutional flows to gold/miner ETFs (GDX, HUI) showed strength in 2024, with ETF holdings peaking in 2023.

Macro

• Global Inflation: Mixed trends across developed/emerging markets (EM):
  • EM: High inflation in countries like Turkey (+75.4% YoY), while developed markets saw CPI averages around 5–9% in 2024.
• Yield Curve: Inverted US 10Y-2Y spread signals recession risks, but gold often acts as a buffer.
• Commodities: Rebound seen in oil, copper, but gold/l silver lagged initially before rallying.

Long-Term Charts

• Gold vs. Stocks: Gold outperforms US stocks (Wilshire 5000) during crises, e.g., after 2008 GFC.
• BTC vs. Gold: Bitcoin’s volatility contrasts with gold's stability, but both correlate during inflation.
• Debt & Recession: US public debt nearing $40tn, while gold acts as a recession hedge.

Proprietary Models

• Recession Phases: Incrementum's model identifies that gold/r/ outperforms in Phase 3–4 (recession stabilization/recovery).
• Inflation Signal: The model's tool detects inflation mispricing, enabling tactical gold allocations.
• Probability Distribution: Gold price projections for 2030 range widely, peak projected at $4,822/oz, with high probability clustering above $5k.

Key Takeaways

• Gold’s role as a sovereign currency remains relevant amid monetary dislocations.
• Silver/miners are cyclical, offering leverage during inflation but overexposure risks in normal periods.
• Macroeconomic signals (e.g., inverted yield curves, rising EM debt) reinforce gold’s recession hedge.
• Incrementum’s models confirm gold’s effectiveness in mitigated recession phases with ~30% outperformance vs. broad markets.

Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.