2023-11-09-IMF-公众对减缓气候变化政策的支持_一项跨国调查_49页_2mb

Summary of "Public Support for Climate Change Mitigation Policies: A Cross-Country Survey"

Core Content

This IMF Working Paper presents the findings of a cross-country survey conducted across 28 advanced and emerging market economies, focusing on public support for climate change mitigation policies, particularly carbon pricing. The survey, which includes over 1,000 respondents per country, was designed to understand how individual characteristics, beliefs, and information influence attitudes toward climate policies.

The study highlights the importance of perceived effectiveness, perceived fairness, and co-benefits in shaping public support for carbon pricing. It also underscores the role of information provision in influencing policy preferences and the heterogeneity of opinions across different demographics and countries.

Main Findings

Public Concern and Support for Climate Change

• Most respondents across all countries consider climate change to be a serious problem, with over 70% in countries like the USA, Norway, and Saudi Arabia, and over 90% in countries like the Philippines, South Korea, and Colombia.
• Concern is higher in emerging market economies, where the effects of climate change are more tangible.
• Support for climate policies is influenced by demographic and socioeconomic factors, including gender, education, and political views.

Drivers of Support

• Perceived effectiveness of climate policies in reducing emissions is a strong predictor of public support.
• Perceived fairness or distributional burden is a key determinant of support, especially for carbon pricing.
• Co-benefits, such as improved air quality, health outcomes, and job creation, also significantly influence support.
• Education and trust in government and others are associated with a greater willingness to support revenue recycling from carbon pricing.

Information Experiments

• Providing new information on the benefits of carbon pricing increases support, while emphasizing potential costs decreases it.
• Revenue recycling (e.g., redistributing funds to low-income households or using them for social spending and green infrastructure) is a key factor in increasing public support.
• Subsidies for low-carbon technologies are widely supported, but this support can be reduced if respondents are made aware of the tax increases or spending cuts required to fund them.

International Cooperation and Burden Sharing

• Most respondents believe that international cooperation is essential for effective climate action.
• There is a strong belief that all countries, not just wealthy ones, should contribute to climate mitigation.
• Burden sharing is often perceived as being based on current emissions, not historical ones, especially in advanced economies.

Key Policy Implications

• Public support for carbon pricing can be enhanced through targeted information campaigns that emphasize effectiveness and co-benefits while addressing distributional concerns.
• Redistribution of carbon pricing revenues is a critical component in increasing the political acceptability of such policies.
• Community-level support varies significantly, with women, the educated, and older individuals more likely to support individual behavior change, but skeptical about their communities.
• Parents and those with high trust in others are more positive about community willingness to take action.

Methodology and Data

• The survey was conducted online between July 5 and August 11, 2022, capturing public sentiment during a period of high energy prices.
• The questionnaire includes demographic and socioeconomic data, climate risk perceptions, policy preferences, and international cooperation views.
• Weighting was applied to ensure representativeness of the sample across age, gender, education, and income.
• Text analysis and information experiments were used to assess policy goals and opinion shifts.

Conclusion

The study emphasizes the importance of public engagement and transparent communication in promoting climate policies. It shows that individual beliefs, information provision, and perceptions of fairness are crucial in determining support for carbon pricing and other mitigation measures. The findings suggest that targeted policy design and effective communication strategies can enhance the acceptability and implementation of climate change mitigation policies.

References and Appendices

• The paper includes references to previous studies on climate policy support.
• Annex A provides tables with detailed survey results.
• Annex B includes additional figures for visual analysis.
• Annex C describes text analysis methods.
• Annex D contains the full questionnaire used in the survey.

Table of Key Drivers of Support

Summary of Survey Structure

1. Demographic and socioeconomic characteristics
2. Concerns about climate change and its urgency
3. Baseline knowledge of climate policies
4. Open-ended questions on policy goals
5. Information experiments on policy effectiveness and costs
6. Preferences for revenue recycling and alternative policies
7. Perceptions of international burden sharing
8. Willingness to change individual behavior and community actions

Key Figures

• Figure 2: Share of respondents who consider climate change a serious problem.
• Figure 3: Imminence of climate change across countries.
• Figure 4: Prior knowledge of climate mitigation policies.
• Figure 5: Word cloud and Sankey chart of policy goals.
• Figure 6: Topic classification of survey responses.
• Figure 7: Climate concern and individual characteristics.
• Figure 8: Support for various climate mitigation policies.