20231105-国贸期货-宏观周度报告_非农不及预期_美联储继续暂停加息_11页_1mb

Summary of Key Points

China Economic Update

The regional diversified index fluctuated, with October PMI declining to 49.5% on seasonal factors, primarily due to fewer working days. This masks the ongoing economic recovery, which is supported by increased fiscal spending on infrastructure, "differ city" real estate policies to stabilize the sector, and efforts to boost consumer demand. Services and manufacturing showed mixed performance, with high demand in certain areas but pressure on other indicators like employment. Fundamentals suggest economic rebounds should continue if current supports hold.

Global Economic Update

U.S. non-farm payrolls fell short of expectations, with October data showing unemployment and wage growth easing. This suggests a cooling labor market and economy, leading to a likely decision by the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at 5.25%-5.5% and pause further tightening. The Fed refrained from raising rates due to softening inflation and economic data. In Japan, the central bank kept rates unchanged, hinting at policy flexibility while maintaining a cautious stance to support economic recovery amid global tensions.

Commodities and Market Trends

Despite volatility in indices, risks remain, with U.S. economic cooling potentially dampening demand. China's PMI data reinforce resilience through policy injections.

Policy Highlights

Recent central bank decisions emphasize stability measures, such as China's focus on fiscal tools for growth and the U.S.-Fed pause, which could alleviate financial strains and support global risk appetite.