2009年-世界发展银行全球_Brazil_-_Country_Note_on_Climate_Change_Aspects_in_Agriculture_16页_3mb

Summary of Brazil's Climate Change and Agriculture Context

Core Content

Brazil is the 5th largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG) globally and the largest contributor to GHG emissions from agriculture (including land use change and forestry). The country has a significant potential for emission reductions in the agricultural sector, which has not yet been fully explored. Agriculture is also highly vulnerable to climate variability, especially in the semi-arid Northeast, where droughts have significantly impacted crop yields and rural livelihoods.

Main Points

• Agriculture and Land Use:

  • Around 31% of Brazil's land is used for agriculture (24% for pasture, 7% for cultivation).
  • Forestry occupies 57% of the country's land, highlighting its importance.
  • Land use change and forestry (LUCF) are major contributors to emissions, accounting for 75% of CO₂, 14% of CH₄, and 2% of N₂O in 1994.
  • Deforestation is a primary driver of emissions, contributing 60-70% of all deforestation activities, primarily for pasture and cropland.
  • Afforestation and reforestation efforts in Uruguay and Chile have offset emissions, but Brazil has no registered CDM projects in this category.

• Climate Projections:

  • Temperature is expected to increase by 2 to 5.4°C by 2100 under the A2 scenario, and 1.4 to 3.8°C under the B2 scenario.
  • Southeastern Brazil will experience reduced crop yields and increased flooding, while Northeastern Brazil may face 15-20% rainfall reduction.
  • Rising sea levels will affect mangrove ecosystems.
  • Droughts (e.g., 2004-2006) caused 65% reduction in soybean and 56% in maize production in Rio Grande do Sul.

• Agricultural Vulnerability:

  • Droughts and extreme weather events have caused substantial losses, with 95% of agricultural losses in Brazil attributed to droughts or intense precipitations in 1992.
  • The agricultural sector is projected to be increasingly affected by climate change, with soybeans being the most vulnerable crop.
  • Climate risk zoning and irrigation infrastructure are key tools to mitigate vulnerability.

• Policy Context:

  • Brazil has submitted one National Communication to the UNFCCC in 2004 and is working on a Second National Communication.
  • The National Climate Change Program (PNMC) was established in 2008 with the goal of mitigating GHG emissions and adapting to climate change.
  • The Brazilian Panel on Climate Change (PBMC) was created in 2009 to provide scientific support to the government on climate risks and responses.
  • The Climate Change Performance Index ranks Brazil 8th globally, highlighting its commitment to climate action.

• Institutional Context:

  • The Ministry of Environment (MMA) and its Climate Change Unit (DEMC) are responsible for climate policy coordination.
  • The National Coordination of Global Climate Changes (CGMCG) advises on climate change issues and coordinates with the UNFCCC.
  • The Brazilian Climate Change Forum (FBMC) promotes public awareness and mobilization on climate issues.
  • The Brazilian Research Network on Climate Change (RedeCLIMA) focuses on vulnerability studies and adaptation measures.
  • The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply (MAPA) formulates agricultural policies and includes climate risk components.
  • CPTEC (National Institute for Spatial Research) and EMBRAPA (Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation) conduct climate change studies and vulnerability assessments.

• Mitigation Measures:

  • The National Forest Program aims to increase forest coverage in the Legal Amazon to 50 million hectares by 2010.
  • CDM projects are active in the agricultural sector, targeting methane reduction and biomass generation, but not afforestation.
  • Forestry and land use change are major areas for mitigation, with carbon sequestration playing a role in reducing emissions.

• Adaptation Measures:

  • Irrigation infrastructure and climate-sensitive insurance are being developed to reduce vulnerability.
  • Research initiatives such as the Dry Forest (Seca Floresta) experiment by IPAM and EMBRAPA show that while Amazon forests are resilient to drought, they have a limit to their capacity.
  • Regional climate change scenarios are being used to guide agricultural planning and adaptation strategies.

• Social and Economic Impacts:

  • Climate variability has displaced millions of low-income rural people in the Northeast.
  • The government's Climate Risk Zoning Program is being used to guide planting calendars and crop suitability.
  • Reducing poverty and inequality in rural areas can help minimize future climate impacts.

Key Information

• Brazil's agricultural emissions (excluding LUCF) are not yet fully explored for mitigation potential.
• LUCF accounts for 80% of global land use change emissions.
• Deforestation is a major source of CO₂ emissions, with 65 million hectares cleared for agriculture.
• The Brazilian Panel on Climate Change (PBMC) is a national focal point for climate research and policy.
• The National GHG Inventory includes disaggregated data by sector and agricultural activity.
• The World Bank is assisting Brazil in preparing a 2030 GHG emissions scenario for submission to the UNFCCC.
• The Climate Change Performance Index highlights Brazil's domestic and international climate policy.
• EMBRAPA and CPTEC are leading climate research and adaptation studies in the country.
• Climate risk zoning and irrigation programs are key tools to reduce agricultural vulnerability.
• Insurance instruments are being developed to protect against climate-induced losses.
• Regional collaboration (e.g., with Argentina and Uruguay) is being used to assess climate impacts and identify adaptive responses.

Conclusion

Brazil faces significant climate change challenges in its agricultural sector, including rising temperatures, precipitation changes, and deforestation. The country has active policies and institutions to address these issues, with a focus on mitigation through land use and forestry and adaptation through research and infrastructure development. The integration of climate change into national and regional planning is ongoing, with a strong emphasis on scientific research and public participation.