2023-12-01-IMF-税收征管改革收益的量化_42页_1mb

Quantifying Revenue Yields from Tax Administration Reforms

Analysis Overview

This study employs multiple empirical methods using ISORA and TADAT datasets to quantify the revenue impact of tax administration (TA) reforms across countries. The research emphasizes that tax administration reforms are critical but often challenging to measure due to the weak identification of data and potential endogeneity.

Research Methods

1. Overall TA Strength Estimation:

   • Uses Hausman-Taylor cross-country panel regressions to analyze the impact of overall TA strength (ISORA OS/TADAT PAR indexes) on tax revenue, controlling for macroeconomic and policy variables.
   • Demonstrates slow-moving nature of TA indicators, requiring robust methodologies.

2. Event Study Analysis:

   • Analyzes post-GFC reform episodes using difference-in-differences, synthetic DID, and controlled interrupted time-series analyses.
   • Focuses on three country case studies (Jamaica, Rwanda, Senegal) to validate findings from aggregate data.

Main Findings

1. Revenue Impact

• Improving overall TA strength from the 40th to 60th percentile increases tax revenue by 1.8 pp. of GDP for EMs/LIDCs, and up to 1.4 pp. for all countries (using TADAT).
• Sustained TA reforms post-GFC boosted revenues by 2–3 pp. of GDP over time.
• Effects take 6+ years to fully materialize due to capacity-building efforts.

2. Key Reforms & Measures

• Highest-yield measures: Compliance risk management, public accountability, Large Taxpayer Offices (LTO), timely filing, and transparency.
• In EMs/LIDCs, accountability and taxpayer segmentation play critical roles.

3. Income Group Variations

• TA reforms yield higher revenues in EMs/LIDCs compared to AEs.
• Stylized facts show that LIDCs lag significantly in TA practices but offer the greatest revenue upside.

Policy Implications

• Systematic Reform Design: CA reforms must be comprehensive and sequenced, acknowledging interactions between different TA practices.
• Operational Tools: The IMF FAD’s TA Assessment and Yield Tool (TA-AYT) supports estimating revenue gains from reforms, but users should cautiously adopt lower-bound estimates given country-specific constraints.
• Caution in Implementation: Small, isolated reforms may not yield substantial revenue gains and can pose fiscal risks if expectations exceed outcomes.