IMF-利用数字技术促进税收征管（英）-2025_30页_2mb

IMF Working Paper Summary: Leveraging Digital Technologies in Boosting Tax Collection

I. Background

• Digitalization of both businesses and governments (GovTech) enhances tax revenue collection.
• Existing literature focuses on government digitalization; this paper explores the role of corporate digitalization.

II. Key Findings

1. Country-Level Evidence

• Positive Correlation: Higher business digitalization correlates with higher tax-to-GDP ratios.
  • A one-standard-deviation increase in firm digitalization boosts tax revenues-to-GDP by up to 3 percentage points, conditional on GovTech levels.
• Synergies: The tax gain from corporate digitalization is significantly stronger in countries with advanced government digitalization (E-Government index above median).
• Marginal Effects: Digitalization effects on tax are only positive and significant in countries with high GovTech maturity.

2. Firm-Level Evidence

• Compliance Channel: Firms with higher digital intensity (ICT inputs) are more likely to pay taxes and pay more when they do.
  • Impact was smaller in advanced economies but larger in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), particularly for small firms and those in high-informality countries.
• Decomposition Analysis:
  • The Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition shows that unexplained components (including compliance cost reductions) account for 40-70% of the tax payment differences in the service sector.
  • Manufacturing tax gains are mostly explained by observable characteristics, but service firms show significant unexplained components.

3. Heterogeneous Effects

• Small Firms: Higher tax compliance in small firms (EMDEs) is boosted more by digitalization.
• Informality: Digitalization increases tax payments in high-informality EMDEs by helping detect liabilities and reducing compliance costs.
• Sector Differences: Service industry benefits more from digitalization than manufacturing due to weaker compliance in service firms.

4. Policy Implications

• Dual Approach: Promote both firm digitalization and GovTech to maximize tax revenue gains and enhance synergies.
• Developing Countries: Create enabling environments for business and government digitalization to leverage revenue potential.
• Cost-Benefit: Digital investments yield high returns, offsetting fiscal costs through future tax increases, especially in constrained fiscal environments.
• Prerequisite: Alongside technology investments, improve institutional and legal frameworks, staff competency, and organizational strength in tax authorities.

III. Limitations

• Inability to establish a causal link due to uncontrolled confounding factors.
• Notable differences between income groups, with advanced economies showing larger gains from business digitalization.

This summary highlights a positive relationship between corporate and government digitalization and tax collection, emphasizing the need for coordinated digital strategies for effective revenue mobilization.