2025-06-09-花旗集团-汽车交易商集团（AUTOA）_Auto_Trader_Group_plc_（AUTOA.L）模型更新_13页_509kb

Auto Trader Group, a UK-based car marketplace, has seen its financial outlook and valuation revised by Citigroup in a recent research report following FY25 results.

The key takeaway is that Citigroup maintains a "Buy" recommendation, driven by expected mid-term growth despite downward revisions to financial estimates. These changes primarily reflect conservative revenue growth guidance from Auto Trader for FY26, which falls below consensus due to strong used car demand but is partially offset by market dynamics.

Updated Financial Estimates

Citigroup has lowered its FY26/27 revenue and adjusted operating profit forecasts by -5% to -8%, assuming stable retailer forecourt numbers but lower average revenue per retailer (-£173 vs. previous +£255). The mid-term outlook is supported by improving Autorama losses approaching breakeven, but core business growth is still impacted by external factors like industry consolidation risks.

Valuation and Target Price

The target price has been reduced to £9.24, down from £9.46, based on a DCF model using a 3% long-term growth rate and 8.1% WACC. This reflects lower margin expectations and revised growth rates, with a fair value derived from discounted cash flows. The stock trades at a PE ratio projected to decline to 17.9x by 2028, indicating potential upside for patient investors.

Risks

Key risks include:

• Dependence on the UK used car market, which could disrupt if industry consolidation accelerates or if retailer forecourts decline.
• Potential resistance from dealers to price increases or up-sell services, which might limit revenue growth despite Auto Trader's strong brand.
• Delays in implementing Deal Builder, a new offering that could generate marginal revenue but is not fully accounted for in core estimates.
• Competitive pressures may affect pricing power or marketing costs, outweighing current opportunities.

Key Growth Drivers

Despite challenges, growth is expected from higher used car ARPR (+£173 in FY26E) and broad stability in other divisions like Consumer Services. Mid-term optimism stems from Auto's market position and ability to up-sell, though volatility and regulatory disclosures highlight the need for careful investment consideration.

In summary, Citigroup recommends Auto Trader as a "Buy" due to its exposure to strong car market dynamics, but investors should monitor risks related to dealer relations and market consolidation. The revised estimates and target price suggest a wait-and-see approach for short-term catalysts.