2025-05-29-Jefferies-汽车交易商（AUTO）_2025财年业绩_逢低买入Deal_Builder_9页_135kb

FY25 Results Summary: Buy The Deal Builder Dip

Core Content and Main Points

This document provides an analysis of Auto Trader Group PLC's FY25 results and outlines investment recommendations and market outlook for the company and related entities such as Alphabet, Inc. and Amazon.com, Inc. The key focus is on the performance of the Auto Trader (AT) segment, the impact of the "speed of sale" strategy on the business, and the overall market positioning of the company.

The market initially priced in the evident pressure on FY26 expectations due to the ongoing "speed of sale" trend, which is a headwind but not a major surprise. However, the results call has allayed concerns about the strategic shift with Deal Builder (DB), indicating that the change in strategy is not detrimental to long-term growth. The company is now viewed as a buy opportunity despite recent weakness.

Financial Performance

2H25 Results

• Group Revenue: £298.6m, slightly behind the company-compiled consensus by -1.8%.
• EBIT: Almost exactly in line with consensus.
• Auto Trader Segment:
  • Revenue: £281.3m, -1.4% behind consensus.
  • Operating Profit: £196.5m, in line with consensus.
• Autorama Segment:
  • Operating Losses: Reduced to -£1.5m in FY26, compared to -£1.9m in consensus.

Key KPIs

• Average Retailer Forecourts: Increased by 1.3% YoY.
• ARPR Growth: Decelerated to +3.5% in 2H25, from +6.3% in 1H25.
• ARPR Levers:
  • Price Growth: £77 YoY.
  • Stock Growth: Negative £54 YoY.
  • Product Growth: £74 YoY.

FY26 Guidance

• Revenue and EBIT: Expected to be c.3% behind current expectations.
• Retailer Revenue Growth: Projected to improve to 5-7%.
• Price ARPR Growth: Expected to be £90-100.
• Stock ARPR: Marginal decrease, but offset by product ARPR growth.
• Autorama Losses: Expected to reduce by £3m to -£1m.
• Margins: Auto Trader margins to be maintained, Group margins to increase by +1.5pp.

Strategic Shift and Market Positioning

• The strategic shift to bundling DB into core advertising packages is seen as beneficial.
• The "speed of sale" accelerates dealer turnover and improves monetization.
• This change is part of a multiyear process, with future modules (finance, part exchange, appointments, etc.) expected to support ongoing monetization.
• The CEO confirmed that the revenue potential of DB remains unchanged at up to £120 per sold vehicle.
• The company's competitive position is expected to strengthen due to the accelerated adoption of DB, especially in the face of larger structural shifts in automotive retailing, such as Google Vehicle Ads and Amazon's online car sales.

Investment Recommendations

• Auto Trader Group PLC (AUTO LN):

  • Rating: BUY
  • Price Target: 965.00p (+7% from current price)
  • Market Cap: £8.3B / $11.2B
  • Float: 94.4%
  • 52W High-Low: 920p - 706p

• Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL):

  • Rating: BUY
  • Price Target: $172.36

• Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN):

  • Rating: BUY
  • Price Target: $204.72

Valuation Methodology

• Auto Trader: DCF-based valuation with a 12x EV/EBITDA multiple.
• Alphabet: $200 PT based on 12x EV/EBITDA forward NTM estimates.
• Amazon: $240 PT based on ~15x 2026E EV/EBITDA.

Risks

• Auto Trader: Competition, regulation, stock headwind, margin pressure.
• Alphabet: Macro, regulatory overhang, margin pressure from investments, shift toward generative AI and mobile.
• Amazon: Ongoing investment needs, regulatory pressure, macroeconomic headwinds.

Analyst Certification

• All views expressed in the report reflect personal opinions of the analysts.
• No compensation is directly related to the recommendations in the report.

Important Disclosures

• Jefferies may have conflicts of interest due to its business relationships with covered companies.
• The report is not tailored to individual investors and should be considered as one of many factors.
• Jefferies does not guarantee performance or returns.
• Exchange rate fluctuations may affect non-US price targets.

Summary of Key Messages

• The market is over-discounting the strategic shift with Deal Builder.
• FY25 results were solid, with AT segment revenue slightly behind consensus but EBIT in line.
• The strategic bundling of DB is expected to accelerate adoption and monetization.
• Future modules will support ongoing monetization.
• The company's competitive position is expected to strengthen in the face of industry changes.
• The investment recommendation is BUY for Auto Trader, with a price target of 965.00p.
• The report includes detailed financial data and analysis for all mentioned companies.