2025-06-09-花旗集团-赫力昂公司（HLN）_哈药集团有限公司（HLN.L）模型更新_11页_304kb

Citi Investment Research: Haleon PLC (HLN.L)
Rating: Buy
Target Price (TP): £455
Market Cap: £36,442M (as of 09 Jun 2025)

Key Points

1. Model Update

   • Earnings projections adjusted for a challenging US retail environment:

     Year	OSG Growth (%)	EBIT Growth (%)
     2024	+4.05%	+5.7%
     2025	+4.1%	+7.4%

   • 4% FX headwind expected for 2025 EBIT.
   • 12M target share price return: 12.3% (12 bps below consensus).
   • Dividend yield: 1.7%; Total expected return: 14.1%.

2. Valuation

   • TP set at £455, implying a 2025E PE of ~25x (premium to peer average).
   • Uses peer multiple analysis and EV/EBITDA (25x) to value each profit center (Oral Care, VMS, OTC).
   • Long-term story: self-help recovery expected starting from 2026 due to synergy savings, faster EPS growth than peers.

3. Risk Factors

   • High volatility rating flagged by quantitative model (short trading history).
   • Downside Risks (excluding model-based rating):
     • VMS commoditization risk; Regulatory/litigation risks; Adapting to post-COVID consumer behavior shifts; Currency/Inflation risks.

4. Financial Projections (2023–2027)

   • EPS growth projected:

     Year	EPS (diluted)	Growth (%)
     2024	17.9	+0.6%
     2025E	20.0	+2.1%
     2027E	21.9	+9.4%

   • EV/EBITDA decreases from 16.4x (2023) to 13.5x (2027).

Conclusion

• Citi’s Take: Haleon’s challenges in FX, US retail, and VMS execution may lead short-term consensus cuts; however, fundamentals and deleveraging pace support a Buy recommendation and higher TP.
• Disclaimer: The High Risk rating does not reflect structural defense in the consumer health sector.

End of Summary