2021-09-15-牛津经济研究院-UK_Labour_shortages_are_more_a_nibble_than_a_bite_2页_193kb

UK Labour Shortage Update: Transient and Sector-Specific

September 15, 2021

Oxford Economics Research Briefing

by Andrew Goodwin & Innes McFee

+44(0)20 3910 8013 / +44(0)20 3910 8028
Chief UK / Chief Global Economist

Core View

Labour shortages in the UK are more biting than previously thought? No, the data shows the reverse. Mostly.

Analysis

• An index measuring "hiring mismatches" shows labour shortages in July 2021 were confined to only three sectors: Construction, to a lesser extent Manufacturing and Agriculture.
• Initial spikes in shortages during the pandemic were linked to lockdowns, the furlough scheme, and seasonal return of overseas workers.
• Since then, shortages substantially eased across all sectors.
• The index indicates most UK sectors experienced fewer mismatches than normal in July.
• Labour market tightness (vacancy to unemployment relative to vacancy to employment log ratios) has reached historic highs but peaked early in the pandemic and is easing. Current levels are near normal in most sectors.
• The finding that any widespread shortage exists, despite media reports, contradicts anecdotal evidence suggesting labour shortages are more severe and widespread. Media reports likely focus on specific bottlenecks like HGV drivers.
• The analysis clarifies that while recruitment for HGV drivers is difficult, overall transport sector hiring mismatches were assessed to be normal.
• Current shortages are unlikely to resolve quickly, impacting output for the affected sectors in the coming months.

Methodology

• Builds on a 2012 study by Jennifer Smith.
• Uses a proprietary model estimating labour market tightness based on quarterly/monthly vacancy and employment data from 2001 to now for 14 sectors.
• Calculates a score: zero means normal mismatch, positive means more shortage/mismatch than normal.
• The index is updated as data becomes available.