2022-03-30-牛津经济研究院-Japan_Export_will_grow_together_with_global_trade_3页_193kb

Japan Export Analysis Summary

Japan's export share has remained stable at around 5% since the mid-2010s, following fluctuations due to global events like the financial crisis and adjustments in production strategies. Key factors include a shift to higher value-added exports and increased overseas production, driven by other Asian economies emerging as manufacturing hubs.

Looking ahead, exports are expected to grow with global trade, with projections of 5% growth in 2022 and 2% in 2023. This is supported by strong demand for capital goods, IT-related products, and recovery in auto exports as supply-side constraints ease.

However, risks include potential global trade disruption from conflicts, shifts in consumption towards services, and limited impact from reshoring due to firms' focus on proximity to demand.