美国情报局长办公室-2021年度威胁评估报告，中国成首要针对目标（英文）-2021.4-27页_1mb

2021 US Intelligence Community Annual Threat Assessment Summary

Core Content

The 2021 Annual Threat Assessment by the US Intelligence Community (IC) outlines the most pressing global threats to US national security. It is a comprehensive report that identifies key adversaries and emerging challenges, emphasizing the interplay between geopolitical competition, technological advancements, and transnational issues such as climate change and cyber threats.

Main Adversaries and Competitors

China

• Global Influence: China is actively promoting its influence globally, challenging US leadership and alliances. It is using "vaccine diplomacy" and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to expand its economic and political reach.
• Technological Competition: China is the top threat to US technological competitiveness, targeting key sectors like defense, energy, and finance through espionage, theft, and public investment.
• Military Expansion: China is building a world-class military, including overseas installations and advanced naval and air forces. It is also expanding its nuclear arsenal, aiming for a nuclear triad and increasing its conventional and nuclear missile capabilities.
• Cyber Threats: China presents a significant cyber-espionage and influence threat, targeting US infrastructure and attempting to suppress dissenting content online.
• Space Activities: China is enhancing its space capabilities, including a planned space station and antisatellite (ASAT) weapons, to challenge US space dominance.

Russia

• Geopolitical Strategy: Russia continues to challenge US influence and promote its own vision of a multipolar world. It uses influence operations, intelligence, and cyber attacks to undermine Western alliances and US global standing.
• Military and Nuclear Posture: Russia is modernizing its military and nuclear capabilities, including nonstrategic nuclear systems and counterspace weapons, to deter the US and NATO.
• Energy and Soft Power: Russia leverages its energy exports and civilian nuclear reactor construction as tools of foreign policy and soft power.
• Cyber Threats: Russia is a top cyber threat, targeting critical infrastructure and attempting to interfere in US elections.
• Space Competitiveness: Russia maintains a strong presence in space with a network of reconnaissance and communications satellites, and is developing ASAT capabilities to disrupt US and allied space systems.

Other Key Threats

Iran

• Regional Menace: Iran remains a regional threat, attempting to erode US influence and support Shia populations. It uses proxy forces and military sales to project power and challenge US interests.
• Military Capabilities: Iran has a large ballistic missile force and is developing unconventional warfare capabilities, including proxy and militant networks.
• Cyber and Influence Operations: Iran has been linked to cyber attacks, assassination plots, and kidnapping attempts targeting US and allied interests globally.
• Middle East and Beyond: Iran's support for Hizballah and Iraqi Shia militias poses a threat to US personnel and allies, especially in Iraq and Yemen.

Transnational Issues

• Climate Change and Migration: Climate change and environmental degradation will continue to exacerbate migration surges, particularly from Central America, due to economic instability and extreme weather events.
• Cyber and Technology Risks: Emerging technologies, especially cyber capabilities, are increasingly intertwined with threats to infrastructure, democracy, and global security.
• Illicit Drugs and Organized Crime: These groups have adapted to the pandemic, maintaining their narcotics trade and posing ongoing risks to US safety and prosperity.

Global Instability and Conflicts

• Afghanistan: Ongoing conflicts and instability in Afghanistan continue to affect US interests and security.
• India-Pakistan: Tensions between India and Pakistan, especially on the border, remain a geopolitical concern.
• Middle East: Conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa, including Syria and Libya, have the potential to escalate or spread.
• Latin America and Africa: Russia and China are expanding their influence in these regions through economic and military engagement.

Intelligence and Security Response

• The IC is committed to transparent reporting and ongoing threat assessments, ensuring that policymakers and law enforcement are informed of potential risks.
• National Intelligence Officers collaborate with analysts to identify likely and impactful threats, including cyber, WMD, and space-related risks.
• The report highlights the interconnectedness of global threats and the need for a comprehensive and adaptive intelligence response.

Conclusion

The 2021 Annual Threat Assessment underscores the complex and evolving nature of global security threats, emphasizing the rise of China and Russia as key adversaries and the persistent challenges posed by transnational issues. It serves as a critical reference for understanding the strategic landscape and the IC's role in safeguarding US national interests.