20140314-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_12页_384kb
报告摘要
Daily Edge Summary - 14 March 2014
Core Content Overview
This report provides an analysis of the Philippine stock market and key companies, including updates on financial metrics, analyst recommendations, and market outlook. It highlights performance data and investment opportunities in various sectors such as banking, transport, and property.
Market Summary
Barometers
- PSEi: 6,429.79 (-0.51%)
- Turnover (PHPm): 6,538.20 (+23.87%)
- PLDT ADR (USD): 60.09 (+3.89%)
- PLDT ADR (PHP): 2,677.01 (+4.10%)
- Ave interbank rate: 2.03 (0 bps)
- PHP/USD rate: 44.57 (+0.15%)
Analysts
-
Head of Research / Economist: Luz Lorenzo
- Contact: (632)849 8836
- Email: luz_lorenzo@maybank-atrke.com
-
Analysts:
- Laura Dy-Liacco: (632)849 8840
- Rommel Rodrigo: (632) 849 8839
- Lovell Sarreal: (632)849 8841
- Katherine Tan: (632) 849 8843
- Ramon Adviento: (63) 28498845
Top Idea
Philippine Business Bank (PBB)
- Rating: BUY (New)
- Target Price (PHP): 29.00
- Upside Potential: 23%
- Valuation: Based on the Gordon growth model with a 15% discount for limited operations as a thrift bank
- ROE: 12%
- Cost of Equity: 8.75%
- Long-term Growth Rate: 3%
- P/BV: 1.3x
- P/E: 11.4x
- Investment Case: Focus on SMEs and consumer loans, with strong growth prospects and potential M&A opportunities
Market Talk
CEB (Philippine Airlines)
- FY13 Core Profit: PHP1,877m (-20.7% YoY), but above consensus
- Performance: Strong unit cost reduction and yield decline less severe than expected
- View: Affirms leadership in the airline sector with strong cost control
- 2014 Outlook: Expected to benefit from rationalisation of domestic routes and stabilisation of long-haul services to Dubai, Saudi Arabia, and Australia
- Target Price: PHP57.00
- Upside: 20% premium to global peers for Philippine's attractiveness
Market Highlights
CEB (Philippine Airlines)
- Rating: BUY (Unchanged)
- Core Net Profit Growth: 46.1% YoY to PHP2,742m
- 2014 Earnings: Expected to be stronger in 2H14 due to improved market outlook and mature routes
- Capacity Growth: 15%–20% (ASK basis) with new aircraft additions
- Industry Trends: Rationalisation of domestic routes, and consolidation in the airline sector
Risks to Growth
- Intense competition may squeeze margins
- Lower treasury income could erode book value
- Failure to execute branch expansion may hinder growth
2014 Outlook for CEB
- 1H14: Weaker performance due to restructuring and start-up losses from new routes
- 2H14: Stronger performance due to route maturity and industry stabilisation
- Full Year 2014: Forecasted 46.1% YoY core net profit growth, but more modest compared to 2012
The Week Ahead
- 13 Mar: Philippine Stock Exchange
- 17 Mar: Manila Electric Company
- 18 Mar: Philippine Trust Company
Earnings and Valuations Table (as of 13 March 2014)
| Stock | Share Price (PHP) | Target Price (PHP) | Upside (%) | Rec | Year | Net Profit (PHPm) | EPS Growth (%) | PE (x) | DPS (PHP) | Yield (%) | BV/Share (PHP) | P/BV (x) | Net Gearing (%) | ROA (%) | ROE (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banks | |||||||||||||||
| BDO | 84.95 | 88.00 | 4 | BUY | 2012 | 13,953 | 4.46 | 17.4 | 19.1 | - | - | 42.29 | 2.0 | 1.6 | |
| BDO | 84.95 | 88.00 | 4 | BUY | 2013F | 19,780 | 5.52 | 15.4 | 1.2 | - | - | 44.12 | 1.9 | 1.5 | |
| BDO | 84.95 | 88.00 | 4 | BUY | 2014F | 20,315 | 5.71 | 14.2 | 1.8 | - | - | 48.34 | 1.8 | 1.4 | |
| BPI | 91.00 | 93.50 | 3 | HOLD | 2012 | 16,291 | 4.58 | 27.1 | 2.3 | - | - | 27.30 | 3.3 | 1.7 | |
| BPI | 91.00 | 93.50 | 3 | HOLD | 2013F | 19,243 | 5.41 | 18.1 | 1.8 | - | - | 30.37 | 2.1 | 1.5 | |
| BPI | 91.00 | 93.50 | 3 | HOLD | 2014F | 20,315 | 5.71 | 15.9 | 1.5 | - | - | 34.28 | 2.0 | 1.4 | |
| CHIB | 58.60 | 57.75 | (1) | HOLD | 2012 | 5,049 | 3.54 | 0.8 | 2.8 | - | - | 29.46 | 3.3 | 1.3 | |
| CHIB | 58.60 | 57.75 | (1) | HOLD | 2013F | 5,456 | 4.12 | 8.1 | 2.4 | - | - | 31.04 | 2.5 | 1.7 | |
| CHIB | 58.60 | 57.75 | (1) | HOLD | 2014F | 5,910 | 4.34 | 14.2 | 2.1 | - | - | 32.72 | 2.3 | 1.6 | |
| EW | 222.20 | 310.00 | 40 | BUY | 2012 | 3,025 | 18.15 | 12.0 | 4.8 | - | - | 142.91 | 1.6 | 11.5 | |
| EW | 222.20 | 310.00 | 40 | BUY | 2013F | 3,103 | 18.62 | 16.9 | 3.1 | - | - | 156.73 | 1.4 | 12.4 | |
| EW | 222.20 | 310.00 | 40 | BUY | 2014F | 3,125 | 18.75 | 11.9 | 3.5 | - | - | 170.68 | 1.3 | 11.5 | |
| DMPL | 21.95 | 30.00 | 37 | BUY | 2012 | 1,355 | 0.87 | 14.5 | 25.3 | - | - | 6.74 | 3.3 | 46.2 | |
| DMPL | 21.95 | 30.00 | 37 | BUY | 2013F | 1,103 | 0.71 | (18.4) | 31.0 | - | - | 7.11 | 3.1 | 49.3 | |
| DMPL | 21.95 | 30.00 | 37 | BUY | 2014F | 952 | 0.61 | (13.7) | 35.9 | - | - | 7.14 | 2.1 | 55.8 | |
| RRHI | 67.70 | 77.50 | 14 | BUY | 2012 | 1,070 | 1.19 | 121.5 | 57.0 | - | - | 7.72 | 8.8 | (48.2) | |
| RRHI | 67.70 | 77.50 | 14 | BUY | 2013F | 2,590 | 1.90 | 59.5 | 35.7 | - | - | 26.94 | 2.5 | (85.3) | |
| RRHI | 67.70 | 77.50 | 14 | BUY | 2014F | 3,433 | 2.51 | 32.6 | 26.9 | - | - | 29.08 | 2.3 | (76.5) | |
| CIC | 27.00 | 36.50 | 35 | BUY | 2012 | 426 | 4.26 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.90 | 10.7 | 12.93 | 2.1 | 29.8 | |
| CIC | 27.00 | 36.50 | 35 | BUY | 2013F | 492 | 1.88 | 14.3 | 14.0 | 3.78 | 14.0 | 8.66 | 3.1 | 27.7 | |
| CIC | 27.00 | 36.50 | 35 | BUY | 2014F | 592 | 2.26 | 11.9 | 27.5 | 0.56 | 2.1 | 10.36 | 2.6 | 23.8 | |
| PGOLD | 45.40 | 50.00 | 10 | BUY | 2012 | 2,718 | 0.98 | 27.2 | 46.2 | 0.14 | 0.3 | 9.94 | 4.6 | 14.8 | |
| PGOLD | 45.40 | 50.00 | 10 | BUY | 2013F | 3,726 | 1.35 | 37.1 | 33.7 | 0.30 | 0.7 | 10.99 | 4.1 | 12.9 | |
| PGOLD | 45.40 | 50.00 | 10 | BUY | 2014F | 4,563 | 1.65 | 22.5 | 27.5 | 0.13 | 0.3 | 12.50 | 3.6 | 14.0 |
Property Sector Highlights
ALI (Ayala Land, Inc.)
- Acquired 40% stake in PhilEnergy from Mitsubishi Corp for PHP322.2m
- PhilEnergy becomes a wholly-owned subsidiary of ALI
- Enhance competitiveness: Adoption of energy efficiency technologies like District Cooling Systems
- Target Price (PHP): 37.80
- Upside: 32%
- 2014F Net Profit: PHP15,139m
- EPS Growth: 24.1%
- PE: 8.30
- P/BV: 13.6
Conclusion
The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the banking and transport sectors, particularly with PBB and CEB. It highlights the importance of strategic moves, such as M&A and capacity expansion, and notes the impact of external factors like natural disasters on financial performance. Analysts suggest that the market is becoming more rational and that 2014 is expected to be a year of two halves, with the second half showing stronger performance.
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
